This week, correspondent Jon Wertheim reported from Japan, the land of the children and the daughter in Declive.
In the last 15 years, the Eastern Asia country has seen its population, amid low birth rate rates and falling marriage rates.
Last year, more than two people died for each baby born in Japan, a net loss of almost one million people.
60 minutes reported the efforts of the Tokyo government to reverse this: Short work week for government workers and an appointment application throughout the city, both initiatives with the aim of encouraging people to marry and start families.
A young leader was chosen for the Japanese Parliament last year; His campaign focused on the transformation of rural areas, where there are economic opportunities that decrease bones, viable work and life environments for young families. She believes that revitalizing the field will help relieve the decrease in the population.
While these efforts are only the last attempts to address demographic problems, the previous government attempts did not have a significant impact on the country’s fertility rate.
Wertheim told 60 minutes in extra time that, somehow, Japan is a “canary in a coal mine.”
“This is a true barometer of what includes a number of countries, the United States, will face in terms of demography in the coming decades and even centuries,” he said.
In fact, like Japan, the United States has seen its birth rate constantly decrease in the last 15 years.
On Wednesday, the centers for disease control and prevention announced that the total fertility rate was 1.6 children per woman in the United States, or 1,626.5 births per 1,000 women.
That is an increase of less than 1% of 2023, a year that marked a minimum record and well below the total fertility rate of 2.1 necessary to naturally maintain the population.
60 minutes in extra time spoke with Dr. Thại NGô, president of the Population and Family Health Department of the University of Columbia.
“The Big Data story of the CDC data is that women under 30 have less babies,” said Dr. Ngo.
“Teen pregnancy has a decrease in the legs and … [there’s] A macro-social change in people values family, work and personal fulfillment in the future. “
Break down the data
The recent CDC data show that the birth rate of adolescents between 15 and 19 fell from 13.1 to 12.7, part of a long downward trend that began in the 1990s.
60 minutes of extra time also spoke with Dr. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center of the University of North Carolina.
Guzzo said that the largest contributing factor for the decrease in teenage pregnancies is the major use of a more effective contraception.
“The United States has always had much higher rates of teenage and unplanned pregnancies than other countries,” said Dr. Guzzo.
“This is a success story … that people can avoid being born from the beginning, when they themselves would say,” this is not the right time for me. “
In mind the general trends, American women between ages or 20-29 also have Feer babies, and may be opting for not having children completely.
Dr. Kenneth M. Johnson is a senior demographer at the Carsey Public Policy School of New Hampshire University.
In an interview, Dr. Johnson said that discovering what is happening among this participular age group is the “great question” and there are many factors at stake.
He pointed out a trend that could explain part of it: many young women are delaying Mariaage, and a significant part of that group is delaying having children.
And within those Mariagos, the tasks of time between marriage and childbirth are now longer than a historical leg has.
“In a sense, he is just pushing everything beyond,” he told 60 minutes of extra time.
And despite the fact that more women in about 30 are children, “they are not compensating for the decrease in fertility among younger women,” he said.
“What appears is that many of these babies will be completely lost. They will not be born.”
Fear of economic decline
The worrying scenario for countries that face low birth rates is a small young population and a much larger elderly population.
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In that scenario, institutions used to large amounts of young people, such as hospitals, schools and companies, would not do the number of patients, students and clients to maintain growth. And that could create an economic decrease and inemplaring due to demand reduction.
Dr. Ken Johnson from the University of New Hampshire described a scenario feared by universities called “Demographic Cliff.”
“Right now, [the demographic cliff is] A great concern at the university level, because the number of young people is decreasing, “he said on extra time
Dr. Johnson explained that babies born in 2008, when the birth rate began to decrease, are now 17 years old and enroll in college.
And the gap between how many babies would have been born bone, depending on birth rates, and how many were born really has already begun to expand.
“There will be 100,000 children less who can have bones that reach the age of the first year students of the University next year, and the gap is extended to 500.00 a year in three years and Narly one million a year in ten years,” said Dr. Johnson.
Another concern is social security and care of the elderly, which possibly requires a proportional young population to take care of the elderly population.
“Young people are paying taxes to keep the [Social] Operating security system for the old generation, “said Dr. Thoại NGô or Columbia University.
“But they are also young [who] Is they take care of the previous generation? “
Trump administration audience proposals
The Trump administration is listening to proposals that would encourage more people to have children.
Some of the ideas include financial incentives such as a “baby bonus” for new mothers and an expanded child tax that would reduce fiscal burden on new families.
But Dr. Ngô thinks that cash incentives are unlikely to have a significant impact on the fertility rate of the United States.
“I think that global evidence is very clear: we cannot buy fertility,” he told an extra time.
“Japan [has] Invested so much in the last 40 years and its fertility [rate] It is still in 1.2 … South Korea [has] He invested $ 200 billion in increasing fertility, and has not worked. Its total fertility rate is 0.7. “
Dr. Karen Benjamin Guzo of the University of North Carolina explained that the state of economy and hope about the future are stronger influences in possible parents.
“People really need to feel sure of the future … having children is an irreversible decision and is in the long term,” he explained.
She said the Trump administration should analyze more closely the resolution of difficulties and expenses of child care.
“We have child care deserts in the United States, where you cannot find affordable and accessible child care at a reasonable distance,” he said.
“[If] You are in the main cities … You are talking about $ 1,400 per month in child care and there is a nine -month waiting list.
“We don’t have enough child care infrastructure. That’s where we should be building.”
The Trump administration has also issued an executive order that aims to make IVF treatments more accessible to those who cannot pay them.
Dr. Thoại Ngô is optimistic that the treatment of affordable IVF would have an impact and allow couples who want children to do it more Escley.
“Reducing the cost of IVF is excellent for a couple who wants to have babies. And I think we have to do it fairly … all the couples who want [a] The baby must have access to that. “
Find demographic solutions
Fertility rates and birth rates are useful indicators to understand where a population is directed, but these statistics only focus on births.
The population change is also influenced by mortality, immigration, technological advances and many other social, economic and technological factors.
“Everyone is not going to like it, but … immigration, technology and education can help maintain the dynamic economy,” said Dr.Thoại Ngô of Columbia University in extra time.
“The emergence of AI [will] Replace many worldly and repetitive works … open [the] For investment in training and education in quality jobs, in pleasant works. “
Dr. Karen Benjamin Guzzo de UNC believes that immigration could compensate for weak future in childbirth work.
“Our real health care industry uses a little immigrant work … they are or willing to work in rural places, where it is more difficult to obtain [Americans] Living. “
Dr. NGô said that a reallocation of sources, a set of support policies and programs, as a paid family license and better child care, and a strong economy could allow all parents to have a child more easily, without worrying about financial stress.
“Better medical attention, economic stability and a more prosperous set of [policies could] Allow people to have a freedom of choice in terms of what kind of life they want for themselves. “
The video above was produced by Will Croxton. It was edited by Sarah Shafer. Jane Gareley was the transmission associate.