On April 22, unknown terrorists attacked tourists in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, India, killing 25 of them. According to the reports, the attacker segated the victims based on religion before executing Hindus. Like the previous terrorist attacks, such as the attack of the Indian Parliament 2001, the attacks of Mumbai 2008, the URI attack 2016 and the crisis of pulwama-Balakot 2019, the last attack has inflamed relations between India and Pakistan for war. In the days after the attack, there have been armed skames on the border in the middle of the calls to the reinvestment of the international community.
The rivalry between India and Pakistan remains one of the most dangerous conflicts in the world. Since its simultaneous appearance of the British colonial domain in 1947, the two countries have been involved in multiple persistent low -level wars and skirmishes. What makes its conflict unique dangerous is the fact that both are states with nuclear weapons. With vast populations, dense cities and calculation error history, an escalation between India and Pakistan has the potential to become a catastrophic nuclear war, with devastating regional and global consequences.
Background
Since the partition, India and Pakistan have fought three important wars: in 1947, 1965 and 1971 and participated in a limited conflict during the 1999 Kargil War. Most of the confrontations centered in the disputed region of Milary, a lower point. A point of inflammation. The Kashmir region is a Muslim majority, but it became part of India dominated by Hindu during the partition after the British departure. Althegh Kashmira received an initial degree of autonomy, India has affirmed increasingly repressive control in the region in response to insurgents backed by Pakistan. The Muslim population feels economically marginalized and victim of civil rights violations, and this feeds continuous disturbances. Terrorist attacks and sectarian violence in Kashmiro can quickly lead the two countries to the edge of the war. Each episode underlines the fragility of peace and the volatility of the relationship.
The nuclear threat
Both India and Pakistan maintain the growing nuclear arsenals, each estimated in around 170-175 nuclear eyelets from 2024. India has not declared a first-use policy, compromising not starting a nuclear attack top with right-wing weapons. Pakistan, in contrast, has refused not to adopt the first use, retaining the option of using nuclear weapons to counteract a large -scale conventional invasion. Moreover, the development of Pakistan of tactical nuclear weapons of the battlefield (such as the NASR missile system) further blurs the line between the conventional and nuclear conflict, lowering the power of the threshold for use.
The main danger is that a conflict could increase to nuclear war unintentionally. Due to the short missile flight times between India and Pakistan, sometimes only 5 to 10 minutes, leaders would have little time to verify attacks and make reasoned decisions. The lack of communication or the misinterpretation of military movements, especially killing a crisis or after a terrorist provocation, could lead to hasty reprisals. In addition, national political pressures, promoted by nationalism and remuneration demands, can make the decallation expensive for leaders, which pushes them towards more risky elections in a crisis.
There are multiple plausible scenarios under which nuclear weapons could come into play. A conventional war triggered by a terrorist attack or cross -border bombing could increase beyond control. Pakistan could use early tactical nuclear weapons to print a conventional Indian thrust, which causes Indian nuclear reprisals. Alternatively, a misinterpretation of military exercises or troops movements could convince on one side that a first nuclear attack is imminent, which caused a devastating preventive strike. In each case, once the nuclear threshold crosses, the climb could be fast and catastrophic.
Small is ugly
Pakistan’s dependency of small tactical nuclear weapons is particularly worrying as a risk of climbing. Because the Armed Forces of India are approximately three times larger than those of Pakistan, tactical nuclear weapons are seen as a possible equalizer of the battlefield by the Pakistan army. The Nasr missile, with a range of less than 100 kilometers and a low -performance nuclear head, was developed and deployed by Pakistan to counteract the expected large -scale armored offensives. If Pakistan breaks the nuclear weapons taboo through the use of tactical nuclear weapons, India could respond with its own nuclear weapons, results in staggered attacks and possible contrary strikes that culminate in a complete nuclear nuclear.
Nasr nuclear missile of Pakistan’s short range
Mortal consequence
A nuclear war between India and Pakistan devastated both countries, killing millions instantly and destroying important cities such as Delhi, Islamabad, Lahore and Mumbai. The consequences would not respect national borders; Neighboring countries such as China, Nepal, Afghanistan and Iran would also suffer. Beyond the immediate deaths, scientists predict that even a regional nuclear war “limited” could inject fixed quantities of soot into the atmosphere, triggering nuclear winter, a global climatic interruption that would be failed of crops and massive hunger. This is a risk that no healthy government should be willing to take.
Tightening catastrophe
Despite the dangers of the thesis, there have been efforts to avoid climbing. India and Pakistan have established direct lines between military and diplomatic leadership and have dedicated themselves to unofficial diplomacy. There are trusted construction measures, such as agreements not to attack the nuclear facilities of others. International actors such as the United States, China and Russia have also intervened the doors conform to the crises to press both parties to exercise restriction. However, these mechanisms remain fragile, or depending more on the personal judgment of leaders than on institutional safeguarding.
To minimize the risk of nuclear climbing, several steps are essential. Strengthening crisis communication channels and making them faster and more reliable is critical. Both parties should work to improve the safety of their nuclear arsenals and control and control structures to avoid unauthorized use. Resume weapons control dialogues, even modest, would help rebuild trust. The international community must also continue to exert diplomatic pressure for dialogue and support regional cooperation initiatives, with the aim of reducing basket tensions and beyond.
Conclusion
The tensions between India and Pakistan caused by the terrorist attack of April 22 are being built towards a military conflict that could become nuclear. This possibility is not a theoretical group; It is an urgent present danger. Only a small -scale exchange would have great consequences, not only for southern Asia but for everyone. If a nuclear war between India and Pakistan extends and stops the results of the sausage, it could surprise the world to prohibit nuclear weapons and permanently end the danger of global nuclear catastrophe. Otherwise, we could face more “small” nuclear wars, each with the possibility of achieving the last winter that most of us would see.
