People buy from an Apple store at Grand Central Station in New York on April 4, 2025.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty images
Although the pause of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, in many of his “reciprocal tariffs” has given some companies and investors, the largest company in the United States, AppleHe hasn’t been so lucky.
The technological giant based in Cupertino depends on the supply chains in China, which has been its levels only for disasters, with the accumulated rate rate of the United States in Chinese products that are now found in 145%.
Therefore, although the commercial situation of the United States seems more promising for much of the world, experts say that the United States-China negotiations remain the most important variable for Apple.
“Apple could be delayed many years by these tariffs,” said Dan Iives, head of global technology research at Wedbush Securities, to CNBC, adding that the company had “turned in the ocean without life rafts.”
The smartphone manufacturer has bones by diversifying its Chinese supply chain for years, but of the 77 million iPhones that sent the US. UU. Last year, almost 80% came from China, according to OMDIA data.
The technology -centered research firm estimates that under current tariffs, Apple could be forced to increase its prices on telephones sold to the United States from China by around 85% to maintain its margins.
“When China’s original tariffs were 54%, that impact child was serious, but manageable … but there would be no financial sense that Apple increases prices based on current tariffs,” said Le Xuan Chiew, OMDIA Research Manager.
Few options
According to reports, Apple sent 600 tons of iPhones, or up to 1.5 million units, from India to the United States before the new Trump tok effect, according to Reuters and The Times of India.
Apple and two or its iPhone producers did not respond to a CNBC consultation.
Chiew said that while this news is not confirmed, storing the best option for the company to quickly mitigate the impacts of the rate and buy at some point.
However, it is not clear how long these stocks could last, especially as consumers increase iPhone purchases in anticipation of higher prices, he added.
According to OMDIA, Apple’s medium -term strategy has been to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks and related to the rate, and seems to focus on increasing the production and exports of India iPhone.
Trump’s high temporal will probably push India tariffs at a baseline or 10%, at least for now, giving a more favorable entry to the United States.
However, the accumulation or manufacture of iPhone in India has been a process of a lot of time. Indian iPhone manufacturers only began producing the pro and pro max iPhone models of Apple for the first time last year.
According to Chiew, increasing sufficient production in India to meet demand could take at least one or two years and is not exempt from tariff risks.
Exemptions?
Faced with tariffs, experts said that the company’s best option is likely to appeal to the Trump administration for an exemption from rates for China imports as their diversification efforts continue to increase.
This is something that the company had received, to some extent, the duration of the Trump’s first administration, and some systems believe it could happen again this time.
“I still see a potential relief that can come in the form of concessions for Apple based on its United States commitment of $ 500 billion,” said Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group. “This has been discussed a lot, but I am optimistic that companies that commit themselves to the expansion of the United States can see some kind of relief as negotiations advance.”
Apple said in February that it would invest $ 500 billion in the United States, creating 20,000 jobs.
Even so, Trump has been clear that he believes that Apple can do iPhones in the United States; Thought analysts have doubts about the plan. Wedbush IVES analyst has predicted that an iPhone would cost $ 3,500 if it occurs in the USA. Instead of the $ 1,000 most typical.
Meanwhile, other analysts say that even a commercial agreement or rates exemption may not be sufficient for Apple to avoid the commercial effects of advertisers.
“Suppose that at least there is some thaw, either in a moderation of reciprocal China or in a special exemption for Apple,” said Craig Moffett, co -founder and senior analyst of the Equity Research Moffettnatanson editor.
“That would still not solve the problem. Only a 10% reference rate raises a huge challenge for Apple.”