A worker rests on a factory that makes steel bicycles for export to the United States in Hangzhou in the province of Zhejiang of China in East China, on Friday, April 11, 2025.
Chinese characteristic | Future publication | Getty images
If China is going to lose some manufacturing as a result of the tariffs of President Trump, the United States manufacturing sector won the main beneficiary, according to a new survey of the CNBC supply chain. The Trump administration says that a reinforcement boom is approaching, but most companies tell CNBC that costs could be double to recover supply chains and, on the other hand, will begin a new search for low rate regimes throughout the world.
Almost three quarters of respondents (74%) said that the cost was the main reason to say that they would not be reformulating production, followed by the challenge of finding qualified labor (21%). The Trump administration has promised tax cuts for companies that bring manufacturing back, but the survey found lower taxes in the classification of costs that affect the decision making of the manufacturing site.
Despite some high profile ads of the technological sector, including Nvidia plans for a supercomputer plant in the US and Apple’s commitment to invest $ 500 billion in the country, most companies cite cost costs as prohibitive. The technological sector received a postponement on Friday night of the new tariffs on China and other global manufacturing nations, but the Trump administration is advancing with national security that is directed to critical technology for future tariffs.
The majority of respondents who take the survey estimate that the price of building a new national supply chain would at least be twice as current costs (18%), and would like twice as much expenditure (47%). Instead of transferring supply chains to the United States, 61% said it would be more profitable to relocate supply chains to the lower countries.
In addition to tariffs, consumer demand and raw material prices, as well as the “inability of current administrations to provide a consistent strategy”, they were cited as key conerns of the supply chain.
Most respondents (61%) said they feel that the Trump administration “is intimidating corporate America.”
A total of 380 companies in the supply chain and business organizations were included in the survey, conducted from April 14 to 18. The survey was sentence to the members of The United States Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Federation of Retail, the American Association of Apoceis and Footwear, Footwear and Retail Distributors of America, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, Seko Logistics and ITSTS.
Among the respondents who indicate interest in restoring the United States supply chain, they expect a process that has been, with 74% waiting for a timeline of three to five years, if not more: 41% said at least three to five years; 33% said more than five years.
Automation will dominate human workers
If the manufacture returns to the US, automation will be an important component of the economic model, with 81% of respondents saying that human workers will be used.
“The US labor market. It is a group when the return movement to the United States is considered,” said Mark Baxa, CEO of the CSCMP supply chain trade.
In the current environment, layoffs are an immediate concern, among respondents who divide almost uniformly between those who plan personnel reductions (47%) and those who say have no current dismissal plans (53%). Most respondents expect employment cuts in the next nine months, and 38% in two or three months.
A Fed survey published on Monday found an increase in fears on layoffs.
At this time, the most widespread reaction to Trump’s tariffs is the cancellation of orders (89%) based on the expectation that consumers will withdraw the expense, that 75% of respondents said they are predicting. For the products that are under the new tariff rates, 61% of those who participated in the survey said prices would increase.
“The immediate impact is the cancellations of order and the risk of consumer spending decline is remarkable,” Baxa said.
Respondents hope that the most affected products as a result of a setback in consumer spending are discretionary products (44%), furniture (19%) and luxury (19%).
“From now on, we have seen a great cane or a pause rate for the load that originates in China, but we are seeing increases and frontal load of other counters in Asia that had the pause or the globe of their reciprocal rate, Paulits said, said Ivies Logistics.
Supply chain recession warning
The sixty -three percent of respondents warn or a recession that impacts the economy of the United States this year, a result of Trump’s rates policy, with approximately half (51%) or those who hope they hit the second quarter.
“Supply chains that support millions of US jobs. Bankruptcy bankruptcies only some of the adversities of the US economy while the president pursues this rates policy alone “,”, the “” “policy” “will be rate”. “
He previously told CNBC that the damage to companies throughout the economy can soon be “irreversible.”
The director of the Trump National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, said on Monday that more than 10 countries have made sacrifices of “surprising” commercial agreement to the United States and that “100%” guaranteed that there is no recession.
Multiple surveys that take the pulse of the CEO show general expectations that a recession may have begun or will soon arrive.
The Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink, said that, according to the conversations he has had with the CEO throughout the economy, the United States is very close or already in a recession now.
The smallest companies and new companies say that the rates will be catastrophic and will put the US work at risk.
“The small consumer companies that began with an innovative idea do not have the capital to invest in the construction of factories,” said Bruce Kaminstein, a member of Ny Angels and founder and former CEO of the Casabella Cleaning Product Company. “They were forced to go abroad because or the lack of production facilities here in the United States factories in China welcomed our business and helped us take our products to the market,” he said.
This time of the year is when retailers order their articles back to school and on vacation, and although importers have removed orders of between 5% and 30%, according to the survey, most respondents say the orders back to school and vacations. But most respondents (75%) indicate that they will increase the price of those high demand seasonal goods. They also suggest that companies are preparing for a cautious consumer. There is a greater focus on lower price goods for vacations (67%) and more promotional items (21%). The aspirational luxury (7%) and luxury (5%) classified in the last place between the orders planning of the Christmas season.
