On Monday, the three -month copper contract in London Metal Exchange (LME) was summoned to $ 9,238 per ton after increasing to $ 9,271.5 | Photo credit: Istock
Copper demand will probably be submitted due to the current commercial war between the United States and China and the problems of the Chinese real estate sector, analysts said.
This will affect any bullish perspective for red metal, he thought that he is currently recovering from a strong autumn whiteness earlier this month.
On Monday, the three -month copper contract in London Metal Exchange (LME) was summoned by $ 9,238 per ton after increasing to $ 9,271.5. Copper has won almost 15 percent since the beginning of 2025, although it has reduced 7.5 percent month to month.
Dragged by groups
“We are checking our Annual Annual Copper Price Forecast from 2025 to $ 9,500/ton of $ 10,000, with our inclined perspective towards a bearish position in the coming months, since the Chinese real estate sector remains in trails, commercial uncertainty persists and the intense of the United States commercial war.
Copper prices have averaged $ 9,385/ton in the year to date or April 9. They have reduced the bone for concerns about the slowest global growth, even in China, after climbing in Tit-Por-Tat washing.
“Copper prices have increased by 11 percent since the beginning of 2025, promoted by a strong Chinese and American demand. Prices are expected to average $ 9,570 per ton in 2025 and increase to $ 9,870 per ton for 2030 in real terms,” said the Austrian office).
Uncertainty in abundance
I believe that the Wing of Economic and Financial Analysis of the Dutch multinational financial services firm, said: “Clearly, however, there is still a lot of uncertainty, since tariffs against key metals consumers, China, have risen to 125 percent. A prolonged commercial war would drag on consumer confidence, weaken the risk appetite and weigh on the demand for raw materials.”
Copper prices began the year with a solid note, reaching $ 10,112 on March 25 after being marked as Trump’s next objective for rates at the end of February. It caused an American copper race. However, prices are under pressure due to imminent inactivity in demand due to the deceleration of growth in the main markets, the BMI said.
However, ING believes that the possibility of prolonged commercial war has also increased the expectations that Beijing reveals more aggressive stimulus measures. This could limit the inconvenience of copper and other industrial metals.
The three -month pause in Trump’s rates has caused a manifestation of relief to some extent, but the complete recovery is far, BMI said.
Do not recover completely
“The measure (3 month pause) relieved immediate commercial tensions and risk assets supported worldwide …, investors are attentive to the next commercial conversations between the United States and the key partners this week, including Japan, India and South Korea.” Commercial economy website.
However, BMI said that, despite Trump’s tariff pause announcement (Expepto for China), copper could not recover complete recovery losses, and it is expected that the ongoing economic uncertainty will maintain the nervous market, challenging the perspective of demand.
Copper prices have gained expectations that the United States can still impose specific metal tariffs on national security fields. This has attended the premium of American copper futures on comparable London metal exchange contracts, since the possible commercial barriers threaten to tighten the already limited copper smelting capacity of the United States, Commercial economy Saying.
The AOCE said that copper prices are expected to increase due to the high demand for low -broadcast technologies, the increase in data centers and continuous urbanization. A tight concentrate market will support price profits, he said.
Price assumption
BMI said that an additional reduction in the uncertainty of commercial policy, if several countries manage to reach the US agreements, must mitigate the downward pressure on global growth and, in turn, place an apartment for copper prices. “At that time, the challenges for the perspective of the demand Willin, since the growth of Chinese GDP decreases to 4 percent in 2025. That said, Beijing’s potential response with a massive stimulus to support the economy could put some of the losses,” he said.
The research agency said that its copper prices forecast assumes that prices will continue to be supported in the second half of the year, once the United States Fed begins to reduce rates, resulting in a Waker dollar, which would allow copper to be maintained in 2026.
Posted on April 14, 2025