As the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping face in a growing commercial war that has dismissed large and small global markets and businesses, the question in innumerable minds is who will blink first.
Trump has hit China with a 145 percent tariff. Beijing has retaliates with a duty or 125 percent.
On Tuesday, Trump increased his commercial salvations ordering a national security security review, the majority or what comes from China.
Previously, Bloomberg News reported that China had ordered its airlines not to take deliveries from Boeing aircraft and stop purchases of equipment and pieces related to the airplanes of the US companions. UU., While Hong’s postal service announced that there was no London email.
“A 145 percent tariff will make China sell the US, the costs in both economies will be exceptionally high,” said Vina Nadjibulla, Vice President of Research and Strategy of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Al Jazeera.
“Complete decoupling is almost impossible to contemplate.”
“Who will blink the first branch about who can endure more pain and who is better prepared,” he added.
While Trump accused China for a long time of cheating the United States in commerce, analysts have questioned if their administration has a clear objective of what they want to achieve with their tariffs.
Harry Broadman, a former US -assistant commercial representative and one of the main WTO negotiators, said it is not clear if Trump wants to close the commercial deficit with China or business finals with the country directly.
“How is Trump with American companies who need their assets from China to work on their factories? It is not black and white,” Broadman told Al Jazeera.
“The markets are placed in layers through the different stages of production, you have components from all over the world. The global economy is finely cut vertically, so it is not obvious who the winners and losers are.”
Broadman said that Trump’s approach has been simplistic and unico.
“It is obviously a type of supply in real estate, but not in international markets … How do you think is:” How can I win and how can I make the opponent lose? “
“It is not more sophisticated than that. He is not interested in dividing the loot. But you don’t get very far with that.”
Calculation errors
Trump has made it clear that he believes that it depends on China to come to the negotiating table.
In a statement on Tuesday, the White House Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, quoted Trump saying that “the ball is in the China court.”
“China needs to make a deal with us, we don’t have to make a deal with them,” Leavitt said at a media conference in the comments that he said directly from Trump.
Although the economy of the United States entered the commercial war in a relatively strong position compared to China, which faces winds against, including high unemployment and low domestic demand, Beijing has been before the war since then in analysts.
“The Trump administration has miscalculated that China would quickly reach the negotiating table and respond to threats,” said Al Jazeera, Dexter Tiff Roberts, a member not resident in the global center of China of the Atlantic Council.
Last week, People’s Daily, a nozzle of the Chinese Communist Party, said the country was prepared for tariffs after accumulating the “rich experience” door the last year of commercial tensions with the United States.
“For China, this is a fight almost existential both in trade and in security,” Roberts said, referring to repeated XI statements that the East is increasing while the West is in decline.
China has been diversifying its trade away from the United States for years, even reducing its dependence on American agricultural products such as soybean soy, which now was most of Brazil.
In 2024, 14.7 percent of China’s exports went to the United States, below 19.2 percent in 2018.
On Monday, XI is a five -day tour of Southeast Asia aimed at strengthening the self -denominated image of China as a free trade defender and a more reliable partner for the region than the United States.
There are also political consultations for China.
XI has built an image of a strong man and capitulating the United States would quickly damage this image, something that cannot risk both nationally and in China’s treatment with other countries, Roberts said.
“They are likely to find some of Mo where both parties declare victory, otherwise it is like becoming nuclear and will close all the trade between us and China and I do not even understand how it works and will have had.
‘Wrong obsession’
Robert Rogowsky, professor of commercial and economic diplomacy at the Institute of International Studies of Middlebury in Monterey, California, said he hopes Trump to flash first.
“There are so many things blinked in Washington that it is almost difficult to believe that I won it,” Rogowsky told Al Jazeera.
“Trump has this wrong obsession with tariffs and flashes Beee, comes from the pressure of special interests: the rich class that has large amounts of wealth in the markets and bond markets,” Rogowsky said recently turbulated.
On Friday, the Trump administration announced that it would exempt technological imports from the 145 percent tax in China, Althegh later, White House officials said it was a temporary respite and that sectoral tariffs were in process.
Trump suggested on Monday that he was also consulting exemptions from his automotive tariffs of 25 percent.
“Each public policy negotiation has negotiation layers: the negotiation with those at the table and the many with those behind you [who helped you] To get to the table, “Rogowsky said, adding that case, Trump had” negotiated “with special interests in the technological and car sectors and” given immediately. “
Trump may have been promoted by the fear of losing the support of industry executives, he added.
“The process [of giving in] Start and continue before someone arrives in Beijing. And Beijing can sit and look, “Rogowsky said, describing Trump as” clueless. “
“The apprentice worked because he was a middle level host without power, being administered by others,” he said, referring to Trump’s successful reality show.
Trump’s lack of policy coherence is also damaging the United States at other levels, according to Wei Liang, an international trade expert at the Institute of International Studies of Middlebury.
The approach of former president of the United States, Joe Biden, in China was “strategic and with his allies, but Trump is alienating everyone,” Liang told Al Jazeera.
“In the short term, multinational companies and countries have to make adjustments and crisis management. But in the long term, the United States has damaged their relations, especially in security,” Light said.
Although most countries do not have a real alternative to the US, a fact that will buy Washington’s time, the countries, in the long term, will try to develop an “American+1 strategy since the United States is no longer the most reliable market for security treatments,” Sheid.