Three weeks after the president of the United States, Donald Trump, effective declared a commercial war with everyone, the new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial consequences.
A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund is ready to reduce its perspective for economic growth in new projections published on Tuesday.
The next day, the purchasing managers from Japan to Europe to the US will offer the first coordinated vision of the manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs, now partly waiting, the economies were also unleashed. Businessman.
The combined image is ready to offer finance ministers and the central bankers gathered in Washington the opportunity to make initial damage assessments in Trump’s attempt to recover the global commercial system.
“Our new growth projections will include notable writings, but not recession,” said the IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday. “We will also see frames of inflation forecasts for some country. Precusions We will notice that high prolonged uncertainty increases the risk of financial market stress.”
It is unlikely that these clouds wrap the global economy lift themselves for a while. The president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said on Wednesday that the US Central Bank is “well positioned to expect greater clarity” before considering changes in monetary policy, while the European head of the Central Bank Christine Lagardy Hethertytytytytherindy.
Meanwhile, Georgieva, with the hope of the next few days, who also present a meeting of 20 chiefs of finance, could reduce the temperature in global commercial relations.
“We need a more resistant world economy, not a derive to division,” he said. Washington meetings “provide a vital forum for dialogue at a vital moment.”
In other places, the decisions of Central Bank in Russia and Indonesia, a key zone salary indicator, and the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve will be among the most prominent aspects.
United States and Canada
In the US, investors will observe any additional deterioration in the expectations of consumer feelings and inflation when the University of Michigan broadcasts revised data on April on Friday. Tariffs, and the risk they represent for both the economy and inflation, have one leg in the minds of respondents in recent months.
On Wednesday, the Beige Book of the Fed will offer anecdotes of regional economic conditions and will provide an idea of the amount of government policy and uncertainty that affect commercial decisions.
That earlier day, the government is expected to report a marginal increase in March sales of the new house. With mortgage interest rates attached largely above 6.5% since October, builders have been incentives to remove buyers from the barrier. On Thursday the starting resale data will be issued.
A report on the orders of lasting goods of March on the same day will help provide clues about the commercial demand of equipment.
Neel Kashkari, Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack are among the Fed officials scheduled to speak.
Further north, the Canadian electoral campaign enters its last week, with surveys that suggest that the liberals of Prime Minister Mark Carney are about five points ahead, which puts them within reach of a majority government in the midst of a volatile commercial war with the United States.
A key response from Canada’s architect to US tariffs. UU., The commercial negotiator Steve Verheul, will speak at a conference in Toronto. Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers reduced their expenses for the third consecutive month amid commercial uncertainty.
Asia
In Asia, the week begins with China that informs the rates of the prime on Monday; Economists predict a stable result. Recent data showed growth overcoming forecasts.
Also on Monday, Indonesia publishes commercial data for March, which will provide an indicator of health of the country’s external sector before Trump tariffs are activated, while the Philippines are likely to publish another surplus of payment balance for March for March.
On Tuesday, New Zealand publishes commercial figures for March, while Taiwan and Hong Kong report employment data.
The next day, it is likely that the Central Bank of Indonesia will hold fees for a third consecutive meeting in an effort to support the rupee of the worst performance coins of Asia this year.
The same day, the preliminary data of April PMI for Australia, Japan and India will provide an early look at any impact on the manufacturing and services of the commercial war led by the United States.
Malaysia and Singapore publish inflation readings on Wednesday, with confidence data of the South Korea consumer also due, one day before the country publishes early estimates for the gross domestic product of the first quarter.
On Friday, Japan reveals the IPC of Tokyo, as well as department store sales, while Singapore will see private housing prices for the first quarter and industrial production by March.
Duration of week, India and Thailand also report currency reserves.
Europe, the Middle East, Africa
With a holiday on Monday in most European meetings and central bankers for IMF meetings, most attention will focus on the United States. Numerous policy manufacturers appear on the calendar, including a speech by the governor of the Andrew Bailey Bank Bank on Wednesday.
The main approach in the euro zone will be survey reports. The consumer’s confidence in the region is published on Tuesday, and the ECB publishes its survey of professional forecasts on the same day. His salary tracker owed on Wednesday points to slower salary growth, Lagarde said last week after reducing rates.
Investors can also pay more attention to the PMI, offering the first vision of the activity in manufacturing and services since the US no warning intensified in early April.
The IFO survey of German business trust occurs on the day of day, showing how the feeling in companies has reacted to commercial tensions and, with a more positive note, to the agreement on a federal coalition government. Similar indices in France are launched on Friday.
The PMI reports of the United Kingdom also come on Wednesday, as well as the last public finance numbers for March. Retail sales data are published on Friday.
The Swiss National Bank publishes the profits of the first quarter on Thursday, and President Martin Schlegel addresses his annual general meeting the next day.
Finally, the Central Bank of Russia will announce its last monetary decision on Friday. A recent reduction in consumer price pressures is probably not enough to convince those responsible for formulating policies to reduce the reference point of a record of 21 percent. Officials may sound a note of deception, thinking, for a potential rate at the end of this year.
Latin America
Just out of obtaining a $ 20 billion agreement with the IMF, which includes an initial payment of $ 12 billion, Argentina reports the February GDP data on Tuesday.
After contracting a second year in 2024, South American economy is seeing a V -shaped recovery and prognosis to lead growth between the great economies of the region this year and next.
Colombia will publish the data of the economic activity of February after the consensus estimates of the January GDP-Roxy report, which leads to some analysts to mark their growth forecasts of 2025.
The Central Bank of Paraguay can be transferred to squeeze from the current 6 percent with inflation up to 100 bp in four months, to 4.4 percent.
Brazil publishes inflation data from the mid -month for April, and if March is a guide, the main impression should push beyond the upper part of the target range of the Central Bank.
Mexico sacrifices both the economic activity of February and the consumer prices reports of the mid -month.
The negative impression of January GDP-Roxy puts ongoing the economy of Mexico for a second consecutive quarterly contraction that makes the definition of a technical recession.
Inflation can be kept close to the previous reading of 3.93 percent, just below the top of the target inflation roof of the Central Bank. Banco de México, or Báxico, meets to consider its reference rate, now 9% percent of mid May.
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Posted on April 20, 2025
