It is expected that the imports of crude oil from the India of its largest supplier Russia exceed 2 million barrels per day (MB/D) in the current month, the highest since May 2023.
Development is also reflected in the increase in the third crude oil trade of the world’s largest consumers with Russia, which had been subjected due to the sanctions of the United States.
According to the global data provider and analysis of real -time analysis, Kpler, in general, the volumes of April 2025 are being configured to be “particularly strong.”
Summit Ritolia, Kpler’s main research analyst for refining and modeling, told Businessline “as of today (April 22), crude oil imports from Russia India by April 2025 are estimated at 2.1 MB/D, potentially 2023”.
However, it should be taken into account that commercial flows remain in liquid phase and loads (for April) could pass to May arrivals. The total raw importance of April of Russia could fall below 2 MB/Dy to close around 1.9-2 mb/d, he explained.
“The real arrivals until April 22 are around 1.75 MB/D, with urales that comprise around 77 percent and the lighter grades of 23 percent remover,” Ritolia said.
Increase in consumption
April imports are promoted by a confluence of market, geopolitical and structural factors, Opine Ritolia. “The Russian urales are operated with favorable FOB discounts in relation to the Western and the Middle East barrels. The economy remains convincing for Indian refineries. Bayers, the Indian refining sector benefits from strong diesel and fuel cracks for airplanes,” he explained.
The relatively cheaper raw material, the Russian crude compared to other sources, improves the gross margins of the refinery (GRMS). The Kpler analyst said that the current sanctions regime, which lacks secondary application in buyers or insurers, continues to allow this commercial corridor to work uninterrupted.
Drones attacks against Russian refineries during February to March 2025 also reduced national processing to around 5.2–5.3 MB/D, which increases export availability. Ritolia also pointed out the strong seasonal demand in India for automatic fuels largely in the back of the logistics accumulation prior to summer, maximum agricultural activity and high industrial production.
Russian barrels
“We hope that the Russian crude is measured a 30-35 percent participation in the mixture of raw India in the short term, especially while the margins are still strong, the FOB economy remains favorable and the sanctions remain limited,” Ritolia said.
That said, Kpler data also point to a modest rebound in Russian refining through 100,000–300000 b/d in the next few, which could reduce the availability of exports in a similar margin. This can lightly temper the flows after May 2025, he anticipated.
Indian crude oil imports reached the duration of 5.13 mb/d March 2025, the highest monthly volume in 15 years. Last month, Ritolia had opined that March numbers validate some key issues, such as India, remains a central demand center for Russian oil amid the lack of western displacement. Besids, the price and refining economy exceed geopolitical pressure, at least in the current framework.
In March, Russian crude imports of India increased to around 1.9 MB/D, marking an increase or around 400,000 b/d mom and more than 2000 b/d yoy. Of this, the Urales only represented around 1.43 MB/D, a maximum of 4 months, reinforcing their role as the dominant Russian mixture in the import mixture of India, according to Kpler data.
Posted on April 23, 2025