India is expected to add more than 650 barrels per day (b/d) refining capacity for 2027 through several expansions of Brownfield and Greenfield, excluding the Vizag project, said a Kpler report. However, the global data provider and real -time analysis warned that the complexity and scale of these projects require careful monitoring.
The refining capacity of India will increase from 5,282 thousand b/d (kb/d) in March 2025 to 5,935 k/bd in late 2027, with 652 kb/d of new expected capacity of a wave of Greenfield and Brownfield projects (excluding Vizag), said the energy intelligence firm.
“While several important projects are scheduled to connect in the next two years, delays in mechanical implementation and startup, such as so-so-so-so-jizan, two mouths and Dangote, highlight the high-risk profile and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions and expansions. Cautious,” he added.
India aims to increase the refining capacity of 258.1 million tons per year (MTPA) to 309.5 MTPA by 2028.
Cautious perspective
Kpler said the Barmer Refinery project is moving forward, designed with notable delays. The First Integrated Refinery Complex of India since 2016, is expected that activities prior to HPCL Rajasthan Refinery (HRRL) commitment for the crude distillation unit (CDU) will begin in order to Q1 2026 with CDU in service for H2 2026.
The 180 kb/d refinery is designed to be one of the most integrated petrochemically integrated facilities in India, with a high petrochemical intensity or 25 percent. It will process 17 % of the domestic oil of the Mangala oil field and 83 percent of crude oil imported through the world terminal in Gujarat.
The mechanical completion of the main transport fuel production units has reached around 85 percent. However, the sulfur recovery block, a critic for crude oil processing, is still significantly behind the schedule, Kpler said.
“Although the initial plans directed to the implementation in the first quarter of 2025, the current progress indicates that the general project is now expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical section that is probably online between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2027,” he projected.
Similarly, in the case of Numalarh Refinery (NRL), which is expanding its capacity of 60 kb/da 180 kb/d due to CDU capacity, the delay is due to the complexity of the project.
Originally the project was expected to be completed in October 2024, but since then it has been delayed, Kpler said. The sources said that mechanical completion is expected in December 2025.
“From now on, the general mechanical progress is approximately 70 percent, with an initial raw diet aimed at the first quarter of 2026. Given the complexity of the Waste Hydrocracker Unit (RHCU) and the previous limited experience of the refinery with this type of technology, it is expected that the residual hydrocracker unit will go online in Q1 2027”, the anticipated agency.
Indian’s retail fuel sale, Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) is also increasing refining capacity in Panipat (Haryana), Vadodara (Gujarat) and Barauni (Bihar).
Kpler said that the Panipat refinery is experiencing a great expansion to increase its raw processing capacity of 300 kb/da 500 kb/d. “The project has achieved approximately 55-60 percent of mechanical completion, and the first oil cut in the third quarter of 2026 is expected,” he added.
In the case of the Vadodara refinery, the project is currently about 40 percent complete mechanical, with the initial oil expected in the first quarter of 2027. It is experiencing a significant capacity to increase the processing capacity of the crude oil of 274 kb/da 360 kb. Of, it.
The IOCL Barauni Refinery is improving the expansion of the capacity of 120 kb/da 180 kb.d. “The project was initial for its completion in 2023, but has experienced delays. From now on, the project is approximately 55 percent complete, with the expected mechanical completion in the fourth quarter of 2026,” Kpler said.
As for the earning call of the fiscal year of IOCL FY25, the company expects Barauni’s expansion to take 1-2 years. The completion of expansions for the implementation of the refineries of Vadodara and Panipat in fiscal year 26 is expected.
Posted on April 18, 2025