The president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the president of China, Xi Jinping, are on a path of confrontation | Photo credit: Kevin Lamarque
TCA Srinivasa Raghavan
Now we have reached the end of the first internship in the War of the Rate initiated by the United States. The battle lines are clearly drawn: the United States has made a sacrifice that can be accepted in Toto, rejected in Toto or a counter’s sacrifice. It is still not clear what it will be.
In the end, it is very likely that no country has completely accepted or rejected. The whole game now is to achieve a compromise solution. It remains to be seen the form of that commitment.
In the final analysis, the thought, the only game that matters in terms of results is that between the United States and China because, for both, the game is being played by other things that are not a mere trade. It is a competition to establish domain during the next half century.
Therefore, it is not very intelligent to limit the analysis only to trade and economy. Those are undoubtedly important, but they are the means, not the objectives.
Nor should Trump and XI’s personalities ignore. When you examine them closely, they are peas of a pod.
Your situations are different or of course. Trump works in a democracy where there are controls and balances. XI has no such restrictions.
However, ultimately, both will make competition on themselves, not in their countries. It is its egos, and not the national interest, which will determine the final result. Both are equally able to ask their citizens to make great sacrifices in their name.
Strengths and weaknesses
That said, such competition is also about how victory is defined. And in this case that implies a lot of negotiation. Some of them have already begun, Trump said. XI, as always, is silent.
But one thing is safe: both will try to see what weak or weakness of the other is fatal. In that score, it is XI who has to worry.
Chinese power, the United States knows, is mostly a ship. It is based on the belief that what works at home will also work abroad.
The point is that China is very vulnerable in several positions. Or these the greatest vulnerability is food. China cannot feed itself, point. So, if things get really ugly, as they could, China will face a massive food shortage.
The big mistake he has made is to become an industrial superpower and remain an agricultural pigma. India, bless the dear, has done the opposite. We have to thank our democracy for that. We can feed our customers. China cannot.
And regardless of his Tiktok statements, technological, he is 30 years behind America. Until two years ago, to catch up, I was stealing American technology. But President Biden stopped him with his technology export law.
Then there is the vulnerability derived from the state of creditor, that is, what the United States owes it. What will China do if Trump repudiates the debt?
Do not forget that tariffs on Chinese products have risen to huge 245 percent. Then it can, if it is good, cancel the debt or write it many.
The other debt is internal. The only solution to this, if things become very difficult, is that Xi cancels it. All those who have money from China can take a walk. Hey this? Can you hear?
So what will happen?
All these are extreme scenarios, but they cannot be ruled out as an impossible bee. All this may not come true, but some could. What is anyone’s assumption? Some clues about what could happen can be found in three different games.
One is called the ultimatum game. It is the one that began Trump. A player establishes the conditions for cooperation and depends on the other accept or reject.
The second is called the chicken game, with which Xi has responded. This is a nerve test to see who flashes first.
The third is called the Busk Activation Strategy in which it is not possible cooperation in all players refuses to cooperation.
Of all the thesis possibilities, it is clear that Trump has XI tasks completely by surprise, not only with the intensity of the attack, but also with his intention of playing what Americans call Hardball. This is probably the first time that China faces such a determined American response.
At the moment, therefore, it is advantage, the United States with three points of the game to be traveled. XI will have to be very lucky or very skilled to win.
A Chinese defeat may not make the United States great again. But certainly from the China and XI. Maybe that’s what Trump wants.
Posted on April 20, 2025