After becoming comfortable for most of the last year, the largest economy in the world lost altitude in early 2025 as consumers got tired and the commercial deficit shot in a fight related to the rate for imports.
It is projected that the initial estimate of the US government of the Gross Domestic Product of the first quarter shows that the economy expanded to an annualized rate of 0.4%, the weakest in almost three years. With the financial markets hypersensitive to the prospects of the economy, the almost stagnant GDP would run the risk of raising concerns about a possible recession and any unblocking of the labor market.
Until now, however, the hiring rhythm has cooled a little, and there are no signs of extended layoffs. On Friday, it is forecast that the observed monthly employment report will show an increase of 130,000 in payrolls, around 100,000 less than the largest March gain than expected. It is projected that the unemployment rate is maintained at 4.2 percent.
Wednesday’s GDP data will be an evaluation of the economy in the early period of the presidency of Donald Trump, showing the initial impact of its tariffs and commercial policy messages in the period prior to the broadest tasks that were announced on April 2.
Business investment in teams, to a large extent, commercial airplanes, can be a brilliant point in the GDP report. However, since then, companies have increasingly watched over spending, since they expect more clarity about tariffs, commercial agreements and fiscal policy.
What Bloomberg Economics says:
“We estimate that the real GDP slowed sharply in the first quarter to 0.4 percent, from 2.4 percent in the last quarter of 2024. The commercial deficit is ready to be the largest drag, since it is likely that companies with the front -loaded goods rate.
—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists.
The latest monthly survey of Bloomberg economists shows that GDP will expand in less than 1% in each of the first three quarter of this year, with the private investment he reduced. Consumers, many of whom cultivate a group concerned with job security, are also limited by their purchases.
Another key report next week is a monthly reading about personal consumption and income at the end of the first quarter. Economists predict a healthy increase in March spending along with cooler income. Wednesday’s report is also seen that it shows a welcome deceleration in the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation meter.
It is forecast that the Personal Consumer Expenses Index, Less Food and Fuel, has increased 2.6 percent of a year ago, which would be the smallest annual gain of June. The figure appears approximately one week before the May meeting of the Fed, in which economists do not expect changes in interest rates. Policy formulators observe a traditional blackout period in the week before each meeting.
In other places, Chinese purchasing managers, economic production and inflation data throughout Europe, and the elections in Canada will be focused. Central banks in Japan, Hungary, Chile and Colombia are expected to leave rates without changes, while Thai political leaders can reduce.
Canada
Canadians vote on Monday in a consequent choice to determine who will guide them through a frantic commercial war with the United States. Trump’s economic and sovereign threats have shaken the Canadians, who suggest that the surveys lean towards Mark Carney’s liberals about the conservatives of Pierre Poilievre. Both leaders have promised rapid trade negotiations with Trump, as well as a deficit spending to strengthen the economy and Army of Canada.
GDP data per industry for February and flash estimation for March will offer information on the economic performance of the first quarter of Canada.
Exporters hastened to anticipate Trump’s tariffs were a source of strength at the beginning of the year, but the commercial war has largely weighed business and consumer confidence, resting investment at rest and spending. The Canada Bank expects anuized growth of approximately 1.8% in real GDP in the first quarter.
The Central Bank will publish a summary of the deliberations that led to its decision earlier this month of maintaining the stable rates and avoid giving concrete economic projections due to the unpredictability of US commercial policy. The summary can give an idea of the conditions that would stimulate the Canada Bank to resume its relaxation cycle, since the perspective of Canadian growth is increasingly weak.
Asia
China releases figures that can be a bit distorted by Trump’s tariff campaign. The week began on Sunday with data that showed profits in the industrial companies of the country recovered in March, promoted by an impulse in the income of the high -tech manufacturing sector and indicating economic resistance.
The official manufacturing and Caixin PMI meters for April are Wednesday, with readings that will probably sink from commercial tensions, as well as to recover from a season increase in March.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that tariffs at current levels can reduce direct exports of the United States of China by more than 80% in the medium term, putting at risk up to 2.3 percent or GDP, which increases pressure on policy formulators to implement stimulus measures.
The region also receives several price growth updates. Australian consumer inflation on Wednesday is seen when cooling a little in the first quarter, 2.3 percent year after year, which increases real interest rates and pressed the RBA to reduce its reference intericitan on May 20.
The South Korea CPI can support the case for a rate cut after recent Grim GDP data. Indonesia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan also publish IPC statistics.
Taiwan reports the GDP of the first quarter on Wednesday, and commercial figures must present the week of Sri Lanka, Thailand, South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong and the Philippines.
In the front of politics, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its stable key rate on Thursday, since the authorities evaluate the probable impact of tariffs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have delayed their expectations of rates increases, and most see the possibility that the BOJ has to remain in suspense for the rest of 2025. The second round of commercial conversations of the United States-Japan can in the middle of the week, in the middle of May.
A day before, the Thailand bank is expected to decrease the costs of loans in a quarter quarter. The Central Bank has reduced its policy rate by 50 basic points since October, since the growth perspective for the second largest economy in Southeast Asia is attenuated and national financial conditions harden.
Europe, the Middle East, Africa
The GDP of the euro area and inflation numbers will be focused, with data owed on Friday to show that the task of the European Central Bank or the inflation restoration of 2 percent is almost complete.
The probable consumer price growth was slowed to 2.1 percent this month, while it is predicted that an underlying measure that eliminates volatile elements such as energy has increased to 2.5 percent.
The ECB policy formulators have reached an optimistic tone in inflation lately, with the French boss of Central Francois Villery de Galhau, concluding that “there is currently no inflation risk in Europe.”
The numbers of your country, due on Wednesday, support that statement, with economists who predict a deceleration to only 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, German and Italian readings will remain above 2 percent.
The GDP data on the same day will show the state of the economy before the Trump’s April 2 fees. France’s production probably grew only 0.1 percent, while Germany, Italy and the broader euro area expanded 0.2 percent. Economic growth and GDP indicators are also due throughout Europe, even from Ireland, Sweden and Poland.
At the beginning of the week, the Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, and the members of the Olli Rehn Governing Council, Robert Holzmann and Madis Muller are scheduled to make appearances, and the central bank based in Frankfurt or consumers. Monthly consumers.
In other parts of the region, the number of mortgages and housing prices in the United Kingdom must be had, with Bloomberg Economics that predicts that the country’s real estate market will enter a soft patch.
Further south, the Central Bank of Kenya expects annual inflation to accelerate 4.2 percent from 3.6 percent in March thoroughly of tight supplies of vegetables and cornmeal, the basic element of the nation.
Latin America
In a busy week, Brazil publishes the weekly survey of economists from the Central Bank, the total debt debt, current account, direct foreign investment, the data of a nominal and primary budget balance, together with its broader measure of inflation.
The IGP-M general price index has increased for 12 consecutive months and is sniffing a maximum of three years, as well as wholesale prices. At that time, the reference inflation index, almost 180 basic points to be well above the inflation target of the Central Bank or 3 percent, more or less 1.5 percentage points.
Chile reports seven economic indicators, including the March GDP-Proxy data, all of which will pass a background for the monetary policy meeting of the Central Bank.
Those responsible for formulating policies led by Rosanna Costa will probably maintain their key rate without changes for the third consecutive time, since inflation extends over the objective, growth and demand have been surprised by the rise, and Trump’s cloud in global economic perspectives.
Surprising growth and resistant inflation are in charge and the center of the Central Bank of Colombia at its meeting on Wednesday. This mixture sees the early consensus of analysts who predict that Banrep will maintain 9.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the IMF suspended on Saturday the flexible credit line of Colombia due to the lack of measures to reduce the public deficit and debt, which have increased more than expected in the eyes of the background.
A light week in Argentina offers February salaries data, while Peru only has its consumer prices report of Lima. Inflation in the country’s capital megacy probably increased during the first month by five, from 1.28 percent in March.
Mexico on Wednesday publishes its departure report from the first Flash quarter, which can show that Non of Latin America. 2 The economy by little falls into recession in the three months until March.
More stories like this are notable on Bloomberg.com
More like this
Posted on April 27, 2025
