The level of consumption is reviewed down, while ex -income transfers continue to increase. Commercial manufacturing and sales increase in March. First it is an image of key variables followed by NBER’s BCDC:
Figure 1: NONFARM PAYROLLL INC BENCHMARK REVISION EMPLOYMENT FROM CES (BOLD BLUE), CIVILIAN USING USING SMOOTHED POPULATION CONTROLS (ORANGE), INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RED), PERSONAL INCOME EXCLUDING CURREN. Trueture), Truuring and Truurture), Truuring and Truurture), Bold Lighthure), Truuring and Truurtufuurtuurtuurtuure), (black), consumption in ch.2017 $ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2017 $ (Pink), GDP (blue bars), all achieved normalized at 2021M11 = 0. 2025q1 GDP is an advanced release. Source: Bls via Fred, Federal Reserve, Bea, S&P Global Market Insights (without macroconomic advisors, IHS Markit) (5/1 //Liberation 2025), and author’s calculations.
Except official GDP (which due to trade -related distortions must be in weight) and industrial production, most measures suggest continuous growth through April (For CanSee high frequency indicators discussed here).
Alternative indicators also suggest continuous expansion until April.
Figure 2: Preliminary payroll early reference (black in bold), civil employment with softened population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income that excludes current withdrawals in chapter 2017, the vehicle vehicle vehicle (tan) and coincident index in Ch.2017 $ (Pink), GDO (Bars Blue), all registers normalized at 2021M11 = 0. [1]Fed philadelphia [2]Federal Reserve through Fred, Bea 2025q1 Secondi launch, and author calculations.
