The bombing of Yemen is hogging most of the attention, but the US is also dramatically upping its airstrikes across the Gulf of Aden in Somalia as Washington struggles to fulfill goals of dominating key shipping chokepoints. We’ve seen the Trump administration lean on Greenland, Panama, and Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings to sell its dozens of global ports to a consortium that includes BlackRock. And then there’s the intensification of bombings in Somalia and Yemen.
That’s not going so well, as the US Navy losing an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet to Houthi fire on Sunday demonstrates. Yet, the US is likely to continue doubling down in the region as it has been doing.
According to the neocon Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “in just the first three months of President Donald Trump’s second term, his administration has already launched at least 16 manned aircraft or drone strikes inside Somalia, according to numbers compiled by FDD’s Long War Journal. For comparison, the Biden administration only launched 10 such strikes in 2024.”
The number of Trump strikes might also be an undercount, since the US military’s Africa Command no longer provides specific details of such operations after the White House greenlit a more liberal policy allowing American commanders to authorize airstrikes and special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted for death.
During his first overseas trip in February, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signed the directive easing policy constraints and executive oversight in a meeting with senior U.S. military leaders from AFRICOM in Germany.
As the collapsed Horn of Africa country is the recipient of increased violence from the “America First” administration, we’re getting scary stories that “The Islamic State has regrouped in Somalia — and has global ambitions.” As always, the result of US counterterrorism strategy is that terrorism continues to magically spread like wildfire and that the US must bomb Somalia to smithereens in order to prevent ISIS from continuing to spread.
It also conveniently coincides with the US’ desire to increase its presence in the Horn of Africa with an eye towards a battle over Red Sea shipping. Samar Al-Bulushi and Dr. Ahmed Ibrahim writing at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft believe this is the case:
It is a clear indication of the growing geopolitical significance of the Horn of Africa, and comes at a time of mounting concerns (mostly attempts by Yemen’s Houthis to disrupt global shipping in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza) about securing the flow of international commerce via the Red Sea.
And American international commerce should be favored, according to Trump who on Sunday demanded free transit for US ships crossing the Panama and Suez canals. Okay then.
What Would Somaliland Provide?
There were recently rumors that the US and Israel were considering “relocating” Gazans to Somaliland among other locations, but this ignores the fact that Palestinians do not want to be driven out of their homeland and many would rather die than do so. While it wouldn’t stop Israel or the US, it’s worth mentioning that forced deportation of populations is also a crime against humanity and could be considered genocide under Article 7 of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. There also haven’t been any serious talks with Somaliland about such a scheme yet with the region’s foreign minister saying that Somalialnd must be on the road to recognition for any such conversations to proceed.
Nevertheless, Somaliland is attempting to position itself as a strong US partner by appealing to Washington’s desire to counter Chinese influence. Somalia is countering by upping its offers to the US. Both highlight how the US is desperate to make moves in the region in a bid to control vital shipping lanes and gain an upper hand in what Washington views as a global battle against China.
In a March 16 letter, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud offers the US “strategically positioned assets” to “bolster American engagement in the region, ensuring uninterrupted military and logistical access while preventing external competitors from establishing a presence in this critical corridor.”
The “assets” are the Berbera port and airbase in Somaliland and the Bosaso port and airbase in Puntland, both of which could be used to monitor and counter Houthi attacks on genocide-friendly commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The problem is that these areas are not under the control of Somalia, which has been blown to bits by multiple warring factions engaged in permanent civil war.
Puntland severed ties with Mogadishu last March following years of political disputes.The Islamic State allegedly has a heavy presence in Puntland, and is one of the primary targets of the more frequent US airstrikes, and Bosaso is being transformed into a mega base for the breakaway region’s defense forces attacks against IS.
In Somaliland, which occupies approximately 20 percent of Somalia’s territory and is home to about a third of the population, the situation is comparatively peaceful, and the standard of living is much higher. [1]
Source: @Dani6CBP
Somaliland has been seeking recognition as an independent state for more than three decades, and in 2022 the government there already offered the US access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognition. The Trump administration might jump at the offer in an attempt to combat China.
Djibouti and China
There is also the issue of China’s military base in Djibouti. The US, Germany, Japan, and Italy all had military presences in Djibouti, but it became a problem when China opened its first foreign military base there in 2017. Beijing’s stated interest — like the others — is to protect its shipping. And according to Responsible Statecraft, “Djibouti is also important for China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a key maritime stop and a new railway line to Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa that connects the countries. China is the largest investor in Djibouti, with a total of $14.4 billion in infrastructure being built, a huge sum for an economy that is only worth $4.67 billion.”
For the US, however, it is unacceptable, and Washington became more determined to do something about it when Djibouti denied the US request to use its territory for attacks against the Houthis targeting ships trading with Israel. The US blamed China for Djibouti’s decision.
Under Trump, the desperation to counter China is leading to a renewed focus on Somalia and Somaliland:
Rather than accept Djibouti’s position, foreign policy experts have sought to escalate tensions, blaming Djibouti for being pro-Houthi and pro-China. Hoping to find a more reliable partner, many propose that the United States recognize and work with Somaliland instead. Somaliland is an unrecognized state that asserted its independence from Somalia in 1991. Close to Yemen and next Somalia, it seems Somaliland offers everything Djibouti has with no strings attached. Project 2025 recommends “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.”
As Semafor first reported in December, members of the US president’s new team have expressed interest in recognizing Somaliland: The move could enable US intelligence to set up long term operations to monitor the movement of weapons in a volatile region as well as keep an eye on Chinese activity. And in January an influential US-China subcommittee in the US House of Representatives called for the State Department to open a representative office in Somaliland.
The increase of US airstrikes in Somalia is likely to only destabilize the situation further, leading to increased calls for Somaliland recognition. Again, the Trump administration is just ramping up existing US policy with a twist. Collective Biden formally upheld Somalia’s territorial integrity, but the Pentagon showed interest in a presence in Berbera, with several visits by Africom officials.
Last year, the US signed a deal with the government of Somalia to construct up to five military bases for the Somali National Army in the name of bolstering the army’s capabilities in the ongoing fight against militant groups. The bases are intended for the Danab (“Lightning”) Brigade, a U.S.-sponsored Special Ops Force that was established in 2014.
The US at first funded Danab from the State Department, which contracted with private security firm Bancroft Global. More recently, funding comes from the Pentagon’s proxy war fund called the 127e program, which bypasses congressional oversight by allowing US special operations forces to use foreign military units as surrogates in counterterrorism missions.
Despite the fact that Somalia receives US aid to pay government salaries, it launched a mega lobbying campaign following Trump’s victory, hiring big time firms like BGR . According to Africa Report, the Somali president is also attempting to win over Elon Musk by giving him a Starlink license to operate in the country. Mogadishu is also going on a Washington lobbyist hiring spree.
The US Doesn’t Do Nation Building
As Team Trump considers Somaliland recognition, the foreign policy team green lighting strikes in Somalia reportedly believes that state-building there is futile. They’re not necessarily wrong, but what they get right is for the wrong reasons. From Geeska:
We are now witnessing the clear unveiling of what remains of the fig leaf that the international community had wrapped itself in when dealing with Somali affairs. This same community had previously imposed a coercive state-building model in Somalia through military interventions and, in 2013, granted sovereign recognition to the Mogadishu government as the legitimate successor of the post-independence Somali Republic.
This project later evolved into a system resembling a cottage industry run by a narrow group of experts and opportunistic politicians shuttling between Mogadishu and Nairobi under the guise of constructing a federal governance model, backed by regional forces that are periodically rotated every few years. At its core, however, this process was nothing more than a fragile arrangement to reconcile former warlords, jihadist movement leaders, and local clan politicians.
As this model has gradually collapsed over time due to both internal and external factors, the international community now implicitly acknowledges that the Somali Republic no longer exists in practice.
What remains is a fragile entity dependent on international donors, African peacekeeping forces and Turkish largesse, which barely exercises control beyond the capital. The Trump administration’s policies serve as a new kind of threat, as it attempts to formalise its engagement with the de facto authorities, sidelining the de jure situation that operates on the assumption that Somalia is a sovereign state, rather than a space where international powers manage threats to their interests.
And so the US, having helped destabilize Somalia, might now place its bets on Somaliland. Should it do so, it would be somewhat reminiscent of another state the US blessed with the aim of a military presence and a geoeconomic win.
Following the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999 Washington helped bring about the creation of Kosovo. While a lot of people in the US profited handsomely from all the death and destruction, Kosovo remains to this day a state on life support.
Politico did a piece on the US failure last year and the author was astounded to witness Washington’s failures despite Kosovo’s small size and GDP of just $10 billion — “less than one-quarter the size of Vermont’s, the smallest US state in terms of economic activity.”
It’s surprising that the author is surprised. The US can’t even do nation building in the US. What makes anyone think they have any interest in Kosovo or Somaliland aside from the plunder and moves on the Great Game board? Politico does admit that “Washington’s priorities were informed more by short-term American business interests, than providing the country what it really needed to develop.”
The US did, however, open Camp Bondsteel. It’s the biggest (almost 1,000 acres) and most expensive US military base built in Europe in 50-plus years. It now sits mostly empty and has earned the nickname the “Forgotten Battalion.”
Maybe they can be relocated to Somaliland.
Notes
[1] Part of the reason the situation is relatively calm in Somaliland might include the local government’s ruthlessness in cracking down on dissent. As Kit Klarenberg recalls:
In late 2022, mass protests broke out in the contested Somalian city of Las Anod. Somaliland security forces crushed the upheaval using lethal force, leaving dozens dead. Unrest only intensified thereafter, leading to Somaliland’s military savagely shelling the city the next year. An April 2023Amnesty International report branded the assault “indiscriminate” in the extreme, with civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and mosques struck, hundreds killed and injured, and hundreds of thousands displaced.
