Links 5/10/2025 | naked capitalism

Dear patient readers,

We have a lot of links today due to including Victory Day coverage. Enjoy!

Former Supreme Court Justice David Souter dies at 85 NPR

NYC has pigeon people, and people who poo-poo pigeons: Understanding ‘rats with wings’ Gothamist. I was developing a theory of mind with respect to the pigeons that would perch on the railing of my tiny terrace (the ones here look just like NYC pigeons but a teeny bit smaller…maybe an effect of the heat?). Some did seem to be enjoying the view. But they pooped too much so I took to chasing them off.

Scorpions ‘taking over’ Brazilian cities with reported stings rising 250% Guardian (resilc)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

See more

Actual Covid deaths in India were 6 times more than the reported. The worst is Gujarat whose actuals are 33 times more. That Kerala is the lowest among the states (1.5 times) gives me no consolation. Its health minister KK Shailaja concealed 1 in every 3 deaths! pic.twitter.com/6bSmEGNlcX

— N.S. Madhavan (@NSMlive) May 9, 2025

See more

On the Novavax earnings call today, the head of R&D made an interesting claim.

She said that the Novavax COVID vaccine is capable of inducing mucosal antibodies that could protect against infection.

This lines up with previous data that has been published on the vaccine. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/zL1EgtRfKO

— Friesein (@Friesein) May 8, 2025

See more

Adding to Dr. Hirschson’s points:

1: It is not possible to get H5N1 out of the North American ecosystem now. It is there to stay.

2: There are multiple modes that H5N1 could mutate to efficient human transmission. H5N1 concerns me more than Covid, which is saying something. https://t.co/XgwpRHDWJB

— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) May 9, 2025

Climate/Environment

Global warming reaches 1.58C over 12 months to end-April Financial Times

Severe Hailstorm Strikes Asenovgrad Villages, Crops and Cars Damaged Novinite. One of many stories about monster hailstones and/or heavy hail storms, such as in Spain and China. Yet many spots in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa sweltering under record heat.

China?

China reports bumper April exports ahead of crucial trade talks with US Financial Times. Running this headline because pretty much all US headlines on the same data flogged the big decline of exports to the US. But this seems off:

Heron Lim, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that, while China’s trade with the US dropped 21 per cent year-on-year in April, it rose by an equal percentage with south-east Asian nations and 8 per cent with the EU. “The largest increases in outbound shipments went to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam,” Lim said.

My best guess is channel stuffing, which is not sustainable. Thailand has been making earnest official statements about not transshipping, and they have incentives not to do so given that their negotiations with the US have yet to start. Thailand has also been making noises about the risk of China dumping product and what they can do about that.

Trump Administration Live Updates: President Signals He’s Open to Slashing China Tariffs New York Times (resilc). Erm, the Chinese position has been tariff cuts first, only then something more than tea and cookies chats. So is he trying to act as if a concession China requires was his gracious idea?

Trump proposes 80% China tariff ahead of trade talks BBC. 80% tariffs are functionally no different than 145%. So high as to kill all purchases (save perhaps for something absolutely essential like meds…which if so, you would also buy at 145% if you could scrape up the funds).

First Chinese freight ship goods hit with Trump’s 145%-plus tariffs arriving at U.S. ports CNBC (Kevin W)

To counter reader beliefs that China is faring well economically…from a reader in a very high end resort area:

Wife has been hired as a Mandarin translator on a tour bus company here…

So, wife wanted me to go with her on the tour yesterday – all kinds of animals and scenery. It was a luxury bus ( I have never seen anything even remotely like it) full of Chinese actors and billionaires. She knew some of the people on board from watching their films, etc. She went up and down the bus talking to them. The tour apparently started in [West Coast city] with two of them being robbed at gunpoint. All of them made sure to tell my wife that the big reason tourism is down is because that type of thing is happening constantly to tourists in America’s big cities and that is the main reason no one wants to go there – they take their chances to pass through – and then places like here get slammed.

The summary of the news from China from this cohort’s perspective – China has been severely struggling economically for some time. There was already LOTS of anger toward Xi and the CCP even before the tariffs. Now, with them, people are getting laid off and fired – and there is literally ENORMOUS pressure for Xi to get this taken care of and get the jobs back ASAP. More than one of these people were saying that Trump has a much much better bargaining position – and they are horrified by how poor the reporting is on this that they have seen here.

India-Pakistan Row

Pakistan says India fired missiles at key military bases and that retaliation is underway CNN

Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes targeting India, says state-run Pakistan television – live updates Guardian

India’s missile attack shows that managing an India-Pakistan crisis is easier said than done Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (resilc)

Yours truly is in no position to evaluate but some readers no doubt can:

See more

Incredible Pakistan Air Force debriefing about India-Pakistan air battle pic.twitter.com/tuIIi9EdmO

— Carl Zha (@CarlZha) May 9, 2025

Logic and reasoning in the time of war Indian Punchline (Kevin W)

European Disunion

Germany to declare immigration emergency – media RT

The Road Right Wolfgang Streeck, New Left Review (Robin K)

New German chancellor tells US to ‘stay out’ of Berlin’s affairs RT (Robin K)

Pope Watch

Pope Leo XIV is the first pope with an online footprint The Verge (resilc)

An American Pope Will Try to Unify a Divided Church Wall Street Journal

Israel v. the Resistance

Senior Palestinian Resistance Leader: “There may come a day when Israel finds itself longing for Hamas” Drop Site

Exclusive: Jordan profited up to $400,000 per Gaza aid airdrop, sources say Middle East Eye (resilc)

* * *

Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel’s Interests Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

Is Donald Trump Putting Israel in the Dog House? Larry Johnson

* * *

Iran’s missile program: Max Blumenthal tours Tehran’s aerospace park Greyzone. I trust Blumenthal is prepared to have all his devices seized upon return to the US>

US Gaza pier op was more than a flop, it was a gigantic hazard Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

Victory Day

VICTORY DAY 80 Patrick Armstrong (Kevin W)

New Not-So-Cold War

U.S., Russia In Quiet Talks to Bring Russian Gas Back to Europe OilPrice. Huh? Even more so than with respect to Ukraine, the Europeans have agency. And they keep swearing no way, no how will they take Russian energy (wellie maybe save some exceptions that they try to minimize). Not sayin’ that Europe might not eventually relent, but it will probably take a lot of nation-level regime-changing for that to happen. On top of that, Putin pointed out in one of his many appearance how it is just about impossible to roll back sanctions, and no one in Russia should expect that. So this looks like a US gambit to try to gain leverage with Russia that Russia will politely pretend to indulge but knows full well is empty.

Kallas confirms EU foreign ministers’ visit to Ukraine on May 9 Ukrinform (Robin K)

Syraqistan

Syria’s New President Has an Offer For Trump Drop Site

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Some of Hegseth’s Passwords Exposed in Cyberattacks, Available on Internet – Reports Sputnik (Robin K)

The most dangerous man in America isn’t Trump—it’s Alex Karp Asia Times

Imperial Collapse Watch

Pay Attention to What Happened in Newark James Fallows (Chuck L)

Trump 2.0

Trump pivots, says GOP should ‘probably not’ raise taxes on rich The Hill

White House to take choice of Pentagon chief of staff out of Hegseth’s hands Guardian (resilc). Wowsers. The likely communications line = less freedom of action.

New FEMA head says he will ‘run right over’ staff who resist his changes Reuters (Kevin W)

FBI Echoes QAnon Pedophile Conspiracy Ken Klippenstein

DOGE

David Steiner of FedEx is tapped to be the U.S. Postal Service’s new leader NPR (Kevin W)

Tariffs

World’s biggest carmaker sees 21% profit decline as tariffs take a bite CNN (Kevin W)

How Do I Survive?’: Tariffs Threaten U.S. Market for Traditional Chinese Medicine New York Times (resilc)

Wisconsin Ginseng Farmers Losing Buyers due to 147% Tariffs Civic Media (resilc). Wisconsin ginseng is supposed to be particularly good…

Trump tariffs to hit small farms in Maga heartlands hardest, analysis predicts Guardian (resilc)

Opinion: Empty shelves, for-lease signs and job layoffs point to recession by summer MarketWatch (resilc)

Nonpartisan poll finds ‘remarkably low’ trust in federal health agencies Iowa Capital Dispatch (Robin K)

Immigration

Top White House adviser Stephen Miller says ‘we’re actively looking at’ suspending due process for migrants NBC (Kevin W). Translation: “We’re actively looking at ways to defy the Constitution.”

Judge orders Tufts student Rümeysa Öztürk to be released The Hill

‘It Cost Me My Job’ How Helping Immigrants Can Make You a Target in the US Zeteo

Trump shut out refugees but is making White Afrikaners an exception Washington Post (Dr. Kevin)

Democrat Death Wish

The Limitations of Partisan Politics Musa Al-Gharbi (albrt). Today’s must read.

The Resistance Is Gonna Be Woke Yascha Mounk. WTF is wrong with our supposed elites? All around the world, all they seem able to do is double down on failure.

Democrats fume over Biden’s return to spotlight The Hill. There are people who watch The View? Although the clips get around…

Our No Longer Free Press

YES! Media to Sunset in June 2025 After Nearly 30 Years of Independent Journalism 🙁

Here’s the Deranged MAGA Propaganda Coming to Voice of America New Republic resilc: “I was involved with overseas ops for 25 years+. I have yet to meet someone who ever listened to VOA…..”

Dozens of pro-Palestinian Protesters Detained After Clash With Police at Columbia Library Haaretz (Robin K)

AI

Videos of Humanoid Robots Going Dangerously Berserk Core77 (resilc)

The Bezzle

Why the Senate crypto bill tanked Politico (Kevin W)

LAZY SAM ALTMAN HIRES NEW OPENAI “CEO” TO DO ALL THE WORK FOR HIM WITHOUT HAVING TO RESIGN Futurism

Prediction Markets and the Pope Rajiv Sethi. This proves a pet peeve: Prediction markets are absolutely useless when the bettors have no/little insight.

Class Warfare

Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class Noah Smith (resilc)

Why Do Americans Pay More for Prescription Drugs? ProPublica (Robin K)

Antidote du jour. From Robert, then in Miami:

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.