Ice raids are concentrated in blue states, including ca, ny. These states represent approximately 22%of national GDP, at nominal prices (approximately 14%, NY 8%; a little larger if real GDP is used):
Figure 1: US GDP growth (black line), California contribution (green bar), ny (tan), rest of the United States (blue bar), ppts saar.
We do not have GDP Q1 for CA NY, and in any case the national GDP Q1 is distorted by the import rate of the rate. We have deviation of the Q1 growth of the national trend of Baumeister, Leon-Leiva and Sims Index of economic conditions at the weekly state level:
Figure 2: Weekly Index of state -state conditions for the US. Weci source.
Then, for the first quarter, it is projected that the growth of the GDP of California approaches the growth of the national trend (where the California trend is suboves US tend), and NY is already being submerged below.
The prognosis of UCLA Andersen is for approximately zero labor growth of PFN by 2025. The official forecast of the Finance Department of CA is for an annualized civil employment growth of 0.6% (0.2%) in 2025q1), and 0.2% and PR
With these continuous ice rates and movements and mass deportations, the objective of the administration of sowing confusion and fear is probably working. With this comes political uncertainty. The EPU for California extends to December:
Figure 3: Weekly index of economic conditions at the state level for California, % deviation of the national tendency (blue), EPU for California (tan, right scale). Source: Weci and PolicyCertayy.com.
If the economic conditions at the state level are affected by the uncertainty in the same way as National, then any high political uncertainty in California will have a depressing effect on economic activity.
