The S&P 500 rose 1.6% Friday, trimming its February losses. Uncertainty remains around tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Trump spent most of last week cozying up to Russia. Rate sensitive sectors were the top performing last week and Technology struggled led by Nvidia.
10Y yields were down more than 20 bps in the US and Canada, resulting in a strong week for fixed income. Awful week for crypto until Trump pumped the market on Sunday. Precious metals and commodities struggled.
Nvidia’s rough day has brought the US exceptionalism trade back to square one, the S&P 500 is now lagging behind the rest of the world since Election Day.
The Atlanta Fed now projects Q1 GDP at -1.5%, down from +2.3% last week and +3.9% four weeks ago.
Recent payroll growth has primarily stemmed from government and related sectors, raising concerns about the impact of DOGE halting these hirings and what it means for the broader economy.
Through the first month of the Presidency, I’m uncertain about whether DOGE has been able to find any real savings, broad spending was no smaller than last year.
Maybe other than international transfer payments are slowing.
Record inflow into gold ETFs last week
As investors simultaneously shed crypto exposure contributing to poor performance for the asset class.
Trump’s post on Truth Social yesterday significantly boosted crypto markets, adding hundreds of billions in market cap. The inclusion of secondary coins raises questions that he is influenced by insiders. As I’ve mentioned before, maybe we shouldn’t overthink it, it could just be a tool for insider enrichment.
It’s estimated China subsidized their shipbuilding industry to the tune of $90B between 2006 to 2013. China went from irrelevant on a global scale to 40% of the market in 2014. Europe’s shipbuilding industry has gone extinct.
China went on the offensive and became a dominant player through investments beginning in the mid 2000s.
China and India have an army of scientist and engineers. These countries will be able to brute force leadership in many industries.
As the West loses its way.
