Yves here. We have mentioned how Doge cuts in the Agriculture Department have harmed farmers (among other things) reducing or finishing access to high value tips, as in irrigation. When the tariffs were discussed for the first time, some experts indicated that under Trump 1.0, most of the taxes that Trump raised went to farmers to remedy the damage that those same rates inflicted. So, although the damage to the farmers and the food security of Trump’s commercial schemes is not a surprise, the update below explains some of the mechanisms.
By Anthony Pahnke (antonyypahnke@sfsu.edu), vice president of the defenders of the family farm and associate professor of international relations at the State University of San Francisco. Originally published in Common Dreams
The former Presidential-Cum-Right Advisor Steve Bannon often mentions that discerning the truth of President Donald Trump’s policy implies focusing on focusing on The signal and not the noise.
But doing so has been almost impossible when it comes to discovering the logic behind administration movements in agriculture, which since January have generated wide confusion and uncertainty.
Specifically, while Trump publicly proclaims that Het meets farmers, his tariff war with China is to steal the producers of their markets. Since Trump’s last period, China has Already looking at countries like Brazil For soybeans as the United States has proven to be an unreliable partner. Add insult to the injury, unexpectedly canceling government contracts with Thousands throughout the country At the beginning of its term, the farmers who already have to deal with what extreme climatic events are thrown into him were improperly premiered.
Now, with the details of the United Kingdom Commercial Agreement Knowing, the signal is, the truth or vision of the Trump administration for agriculture is emerging in sight. To the point, not very different from how American agriculture has directed the legs during the last decades, it is clear that this administration will prioritize exports. The problem with this vision is that, even if it generates short -term profits, it endangers our long -term national food security by dangerously internationalizing our agricultural system.
Consider praise On May 8, the United States Secretary of Agriculture was held, Brooke Rollins in the United Kingdom Agreement, highlighting its alleged profits for farmers.
After the announcement, the secretary announced a tour that will be made for the United Kingdom to promote the agreement. While the details have still been removed, we are informed of a promised market access of $ 5 billion for beef and ethanol.
Contrast that the clear messages, the signal, the government contracts with the farmers frozen and were subject to an administrative review, and the financing of the local food programs was cut.
Contracts were related to the Law on Inflation Reduction of the Biden Administration (IRA), which included resources for initiatives such as those that deal with soil and water conservation, and support local food processing. In addition, programs that connected local producers with foods and food banks, for example, the local food cooperation agreement for schools and the local food purchase assistance agreement program. The amount of approximately $ 1 billion.
Since February, Some of the contracts have a leg without roots If they aligned with the political objectives of the administration (that is, not the diversity of promotion, equity and inclusion, or DEI). Although Judicial orders by ruling that all contracts must be honoredIf the funds will be distributed, it remains to be seen.
In general, the noise surrounding the drama of the contract that is developed points to farmers who wish to diversify their operations and serve the local markets that must guess to seek help to the government.
At the same time, Trump has not abandoned all producers.
In fact, in the midst of the shock to freeze some contracts, Secretary Rollins Ok’d thousands of millions in direct paymentso Rescue, for producers of basic products such as corn. Thanks to such payments and not to any improvement in markets, Willers farmers are expected to See your income increase When compiling this year with the last.
Tasks together, the bailouts together with the United Kingdom-United Kingdom Agreement recently signed and Rate relief in China Illustrates how the Trump administration prioritizes export agriculture as the driving force of the agricultural system of our country.
This dynamics of contradiction, such as Trump, seems anxious to send our food abroad while being willing to do anything to bring the manufacture of return to the coast of the United States on behalf of strengthening the national economy.
Even so, the deepest problem is how export promotion makes our food system insecure, subjecting farmers to international political captures and economic interruption.
Remember the 1970s, when a grain production crisis caused a sudden demand in the Soviet Union. The then secretary of agriculture Earl Butz told farmers that “they plant the row of the fence to the row of the fence” and “are large or leave” to benefit from the Newly discovered export opportunity.
The promise of international markets came, and left. The seizure of President Jimmy Carter Or the exports of grains to the Soviet Union in 1980 for the invasion of Afghanistan of that country were a body blow for farmers who made exports of basic products central in their financial plans. Then, the farmers fought to pay the debt of the land and the machinery that they acquired only a few years before, which, with the increase in gasoline prices, contributed to the agricultural crisis of the 1980s. The parallels abound now, including the initial effects of the invasion of Ukraine in Russia of Ukraine Increased fertilizer and gasoline costsAnd more recently, the Onsking dynamics of Trump’s commercial war with China.
With respect to the United Kingdom Agreement-United Kingdom, Ethanol imports from the United Kingdom may seem a blessing for corn producers. But without the future terms of the agreement being clarified, it is not clear if this is simply a continuation of What the British already matter. Similarly, the importance of the $ 250 million scheduled in purchases of beef products is of questionable importance, since last year exported the United States $ 1.6 billion To China. Regardless of the recent 90-day truce in the China-United States commercial dispute, the 30% soaking rate would still harm US farmers. The export impulse of the Trump administration will find farmers without markets and will need more rescue.
In addition to subjecting the livelihoods of American farmers to international uncertainty, the other concern is the lack of concern for the next generation of food producers. Year after year, the country’s farmers are aging, without anyone taking a step forward to replace them. According to the agricultural census of 2022, the average farmer is over 58 yearsmore than half a year since the last census was held in 2017. Duration that same time, We lost almost 150,000 operations. Since 2012, about 200,000 farmers have abandoned the industry, representing A 10% decrease. Meanwhile, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, up or 70% or cultivation lands It is expected to change hands in the next 20 years.
Export promotion serves a temporary solution, but places farmers to the whims of international politics. Moreover, threatens farmers already economically pressed from our country, which makes our country more dependent on an increasing number of people for food, as well as imports. In fact, since 2004, while exports have almost doubled from $ 50 billion to $ 200, Our food imports have increased a little more.
Trump’s efforts to undo the policies of the previous administration establish our food system for interruption and crisis, subjecting farmers to the uncertainties of international markets and developments in other places. If there is a signal with the noise Trump is doing with our food system, then this is all: it is better that farmers prepare for the next volatile and more rescue years, since the operations will continue to go down. In general, Trump’s nationalist rhetoric equals little, as our food system becomes more global, it becomes more and more vulnerable to dynamics outside our control.
