Yves here. Occasionally we publish articles by Simon Watkins, as we do today, to give readers a window to the neocon thoughts of a hard core with respect to the Middle East. Remember, Watkins is not creating its evaluations from whole fabrics. Their contacts really believe, for example, that Israel really has the ability to eliminate all Iranian nuclear sites that support the potential development of weapons. Most readers know that many experts who seem to be well known for the content of the region otherwise, that the key sites of nuclear enrichment in Iran, as well as many sites with conventional missiles, are very deep. However, Watkins continues to represent its evaluation as reasonable when working from an analysis of the 2012 Congress research service (without typographic error). Help me.
However, never makes it worth it. One is that it is necessary for Netanyahu to process with an aggressive cleaning of Gaza. It will cling until Trump has completed his Middle East tour. Two is that Watkins argues that if the Israeli attack is ugly enough, the OPEC Mimbers could return to its seizure of the 70s. As much as the resulting high prices were damaged fully to poor households, the resulting economic damage in addition to the inflicted tariff pain is an appropriate punishment for the United States and Trump in particular by making squats to stop the monstrous in the song.
The children’s spectrum looking at children seems to have generated an even more busy hostility towards genocide … only in Israel:
In Jerusalem tonight, people holding photos of Palestinian children killed in Gaza. This specific form of protest becomes bigger every week. Enough. pic.twitter.com/fb2v9bgaq4
– Ami Dar (@amidar) May 10, 2025
And in another wild card, the internal opposition to the Netanyahu climbing track is increasing at a higher level in Israel:
In Jerusalem tonight, people holding photos of Palestinian children killed in Gaza. This specific form of protest becomes bigger every week. Enough. pic.twitter.com/fb2v9bgaq4
– Ami Dar (@amidar) May 10, 2025
By Simon Watkins, former merchant and seller of FX, financial journalist and best -selling author. He was head of institutional sales and trade from Forex for Credit Lyonnais, and then Forex director at the Montreal Bank. He was then head of weekly publications and main writer of Business Monitor International, Head of Fuel Products for Platts and Editor of Capital Research Renissance in Moscow. Originally published in Oilprice
- Israel prepares the important Gaza operation that can relocate civilians and run the risk of increasing regional tensions.
- Geopolitical inflammation points intensify, with Israel, according to reports, ready to hit Iranian nuclear sites.
- The World Bank warns that a great interruption of the Middle East supply could increase oil prices by 56-75%.
The next phase of the plan of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for Gaza could be the beginning of the final game of the ongoing Israel-Ahamas War that represents the greatest danger to the global oil market. According to his statement on May 5, he said that Israel was “on the eve of an intense entry to Gaza”, and that once the tens of thousands of additional Israel defense troops (IDF) wrote the mission are in the territory, “they will not enter Andter.”
At the same time that the new FDI offensive against Hamas in Gaza is carried out, Israeli soldiers will force some, or all the more than two million Palestinian civilians in Gaza to a small area in the south. Humanitarian aid will be distributed through private companies, such as the United Nations agencies have said they do not cooperate, they consider that plans violate the principles of humanitarian aid. Althegh was aimed at releasing the 24 living hostages in Gaza and repatriating the bodies of another 351 hostage tasks during the attacks of October 7, 2023 against Israel by Hamas, some see the replacement of Witestivra as perman settlers.
The precise moment of this plan depends on the possible result of the next visits of US president Donald Trump to the key Arab states of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar. However, there are little doubt that the new Plan for Gaza will be implemented in any case, according to several Security Safety sources exclusively by Oilprice.com From the statement of May 5 by Netanyahu. “Netanyahu has been said for its key parliamentary sponsors that if it continues, they will demolish it,” said one of London’s sources last week.
If Trump is Unsuccessful in Fully Persuading The Three Arab Nations That Their Interests Are Served by Staying Out of The Intense Drama In Gaza, The One Course of Action That May Well is an embargo on Oil Exports From Opec of The Fede with your own in the case. In its entirety in my last book on the new World Petroleum Market Request. In fact, the parallels between the Weet of the current events in the Middle East and those that preceded the 1973 oil crisis are amazing. At that time, the Egyptian army moved to the Sinai Peninsula, while the Syrian forces moved to the territories of Golan Heights-Two that had been captured by Israel during the six-day war of 1967 on the most sacred day of the Jewish faith, Yom. This was the same method of multiple direction attack and the religious date as Hamas attacks on October 7 used 50 years later by Hamas in objectives of all Israel.
The 1973 attack by two main Arab states in Israel later attracted more Islamic countries in the region as the conflict focused on religion instead of simply giving lost territory. Military support and another arrived in Egypt and Syria from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, Libya, Kuwait and Tunisia before the war ended on October 25, 1973 in a high fire negotiated by the United Nations.
However, the conflict in its broadest sense did not end there. A embargo on oil exports to the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada and the Netherlands was imposed by key OPEC members, most Arabia Notabli, in response to its collective supply of weapons, intelligence support to Israel to Israel. And logistics support. And logistics support. At the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had increased around 267%, of approximately US $ 3 per barrel (PB) to almost US $ 11 bp. This, in turn, fueled the fire of a global economic slowdown, especially felt in the net important oil countries of the West.
We must consider Iran’s response, since Hamas is one of his key proxies in the region. Until relatively recent, it had still been involved in a series of Tit-For Tat military strikes against Israel and warned that they would be the most depending on the severity of the way Israel treats the key regional proxyas. Israel, on the other hand, has long threatened to put an end to the always more closed threat that Iran has nuclear weapons by launching direct attacks in its main nuclear facilities.
Donald Trump has repeatedly made clear that this would be in favor of such strikes. On October 4, the then presidential candidate said that: “Israel should hit the nuclear [facilities] First and worry about the rest later. “In response to the refusal of the then US president Joe Biden to support the idea that Israelíes are these Iranian sites after Israel directed Tehran,” that is the craziest identification. That is the greatest risk we have. The greatest risk we have is nuclear … They will soon have nuclear weapons. And then you will have problems. “
Israel has long possessed a complete military operations plan to attack and destroy all the main sites in Iran connected to the development of a nuclear weapons capacity. Some of this would be done through a combination of human technology and intelligence, while a larger element would have to be executed through air attacks. A report of the United States Congress Research Service (CRS) analyzed that Natanz, Esfahan and Arak’s nuclear sites in Iran in logistics terms of Iran would probably require 90 tactical combatants, although, assuming around a 10% reliability margin, 100 would be needed.
At the time of the report, Israel had around 350 combat planes, and the number has increased considerably since then. To solve the potential problem of Israeli aircraft that cross the sovereign airspace of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq and/or Syria, the report added that the plane could members of Türkiye to reinforce and Azbaijan.
That said, there is an indication that Israel significantly expanded its military assets in Azerbaijan after the climbing of Nagorno-Karabakhh conflicts in 2023. Regarding the armament request to take the 2012 2012 report, the underground sites have already sold guided bomb units by Israel (GBU) of the class ’27’ 2000 lb and the class ‘20000’ 5000 lb. Israel used the 2,000 -pound -made penetrating pumps made in the United States (Bomb Live) -109 to kill Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 last year. Althegh His bunker was only 100 feet underground compared to the more than 300 feet of some of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the report added in 2012 that: “The United States may have silently had the much more sophisticated systems or the mayor of Israel Israel May or Israel May’s Israel May’s Israel.” “” “” “” “” “” Apart from these logistic considerations, there is a count of counting that will clearly believe that Israel could achieve it, as in April 2024, shortly after the attack of Iranian missiles against Israel, Tehran closed its nuclear facilities.
Any significant and sustained significant decrease in the oil supply resulting from the OPEC members and/or additional interruptions on the key to the Middle East oil shipping could have extreme consequences for the price of oil.
In the first internships of the initial conflict of Israel-Ahamas, the World Bank established a variety of scenarios for the price of oil according to a risk gradation. He declared that a ‘small interruption’ with the reduction of the global oil supply that is reduced by 500,000 to 2 million BPD (approximately the same as the decrease in the duration of the Libyan civil war in 2011) -The price of the price of oil price Price price price Price price price. A “average interruption” that involves a loss of supply of 3 million to 5 million BPD (approximately equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003) would increase the price of oil by 21-35%. And a ‘great interruption’ that has a supply drop from 6 million to 8 million BPD (such as the fall in the 1973 oil crisis), would raise the price of oil 56-75%.
