Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – Kieu Quoc Thanh, CEO of Cashew Export Business SVC Group, says that everyone in their industry has “felt crazy” during the last two weeks.
Since the president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced his “reciprocal” tariffs since April 2, Thanh has witnessed mass confusion among Vietnamese exporters.
Many companies that depend on the US market are reviewing online per hour for updates on rates, says Thanh, while he has a shipping container full of anacardos destined for the US market that is currently in Limbo.
Since Trump announced a 90 -day pause on the 46 percent Vietnam rate and Didens drafts from other countries, the United States has embedded a 10 percent basal tax in imports from all countries, including Vietam.
But Thanh’s clients in the US and Customs officers are not sure how much they tax their products, he says.
“No one knows what is happening,” Thanh told Al Jazeera in his office in the city of Ho Chi Minh last week.
While companies like Thanh navigate the interruption, Hanoi and Washington are in discussions on a commercial agreement after accepting the negotiations on April 10.
For Vietnam, one of the economies most related to the export of the world, bets could barely be higher.
The United States is the largest export market in the country in Southeast Asia, with shipments only last year that represents 30 percent or the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
While the Trump rate pause led to any hope in Vietnam, the country is in Tennerhooks about what could happen next, said Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen, head of the head of the market firm of the Variable Variable Signature Hi Minh City Security Corporation.
“We are having a period of extreme uncertainty, not only for the financial market, but also for companies,” Nguyen told Al Jazeera.
“It’s like a reality show,” Nguyen added. “Everything changes every day.”
Trump’s commercial salvings have contrasted a strong contrast to the process of warm relationships between Washington and Hanoi, which culminated with the ancient enemies improving their ties with a “integral strategic association” in 2023.
For Eddie Thai, an Vietnamese American who co -founded the risk capital firm of Ho Chi Minh, Ascend Vietnam Ventures, has a leg discouraging to see that relationships feel tensing, participating in the anniversary of the war.
“I do not think that I have returned 50 years, I would say that far, but it is burning a lot of good will that many people on both sides of the ocean have blows to build spraying the 90s of the 90s, calling Al Jazeera, personally” disappointing like an American. “
With the United States and Vietnam looking towards a commercial agreement, China, the largest source of imports from Hanoi and its second largest export destination, advanced negotiations has been made.
On Monday, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, visited Hanoi as part of a five -day tour of Southeast Asia, a trip widely seen as an effort to choose China as a more reliable commercial partner for the region than the United States.
Upon arrival, XI was received at the airport by President Vietnamese Luong Cuong, and then received a greeting of 21 cannons in the presidential palace of Hanoi.
Reacting to the hot reception for the Chinese leader, Trump suggested that countries would use their conversations for schemes against the United States.
“That is a lovely meeting. As a meeting, trying to find out” How do we fuck the United States of America? “Trump told White House journalists.
According to the media of the Chinese State Xinhua, XI urged Vietnam to resist “unilateral harassment” and declared that “China’s mega market is always open to Vietnam.”
Duration XIS Visit, the countries signed 45 agreements, the Chinese and Vietnamese media reported, without providing details of the agreements.
With the United States and China slapping the goods of others with rates that exceed 100 percent, Vietnam has become the “diplomatic type in the middle,” said Nguyen, a strategist of Hi Minh City Securities Corporation.
“[Hanoi] Always try to be neutral in each situation, “said Nguyen.” We do not put ourselves on the side of a country to fight another country. “
American commercial deficit
Trump tariffs have also increased the anger of Vietnam’s foreign companies.
It would be an impossible task for Vietnam to erase its commercial deficit with the United States, the third highest in 2024 to $ 123.5 billion, the differences between the two economies, said Bruno Jaspaert, general director of the deep C areas C.
“Any country like Vietnam, in reality, has no influence against the United States,” said Jaspaert, who is also Chief of Eurocham Vietnam, Al Jazeera.
“That stupid formula of yours can never be balanced, it will spend decades before Vietnam can buy enough,” Jaspaert said, referring to the controversial calculations used by the Trump administration to come with his “reciprocal.”
Facing the threat of a great economic blow, Hanoi has put a considerable effort to enter the good thanks of the Trump administration.
The Government has pledged to buy more Boeing aircraft and liquefied natural gas, and opened conversations about the purchase of Lockheed Martin C-130 load aircraft.
Last month, officials agreed to allow Elon Musk Opere Starlink Satellink Internet service in the country based on trial.
Vietnam has also signed agreements with the Trump organization.
Shortly before Trump’s re -election, his Holding company agreed to invest $ 1.5 billion in a golf course and a hotel project in the head of the Communist Party to the hometown of Lam de Hung Yen.
“I think the leadership in Hano-and did a lot to ensure a more indulgent approach,” Nguyen Khac Giang told Al Jazeera, visiting the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore.
For LAM, he was one of the first foreign leaders to get on the phone with Trump after his fee announcement on April 2 and sent a delegation to Washington to negotiate with his administration on April 10.
Among his efforts to mold Trump, Lam has said that he is willing to reduce tariffs on US goods to zero.
“There is no alternative option for Vietnam that is not to make peace with the United States to ensure access to the US market,” Giang said. “Vietnamese must do what they can to preserve that access.”
Despite the risks for Vietnam, some observers also see opportunities for the country in Trump’s commercial war.
In the short term, companies are increasing production to bring goods to the US in the next three months, while the 10 percent rate is still in place.
“Many people plan to send a lot: 10 percent is still feasible,” said Jaspaert. “If Trump wants to resist his promise, tariffs will increase again … I don’t think we are still out of the forest.”
In the long term, Vietnam could be a beneficiary of greater volatility between Washington and Beijing Bajo Trump.
Duration Trump’s first mandate, the country of Southeast Asia benefited from an exodus of China factories, since companies were looking for classes of their exposure to geopolitical risks and commercial barriers.
“The real battle here is without shame the United States against China,” Craig Martin, president or private capital firm based in the city of Ho Chi Minh, to Al Jazeera, told Al Jazeera.
“You have this uncertainty, this very -heated trade war with levels of water tariffs and tires [between Washington and Beijing]. “” You could see a real silver side, being people to do more in Vietnam, “Martin added.
Vietnam also has one leg under the scrutiny of the United States to send products from China to the United States with a minimum manufacture that does not take into account in Vietnam.
Such scrutiny will probably push Vietnam to invest in a more added value manufacturing, said Nguyen, the market strategist.
“I think there will be a mechanism that both governments must use that to control that, to make sure it is not transford,” he said. “I think that would be good for Vietnam in mid or long.”
Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that Hanoi was offering to take energetic measures against Chinese products sent to the US.
The report, which quoted a person familiar with the matter and a government document, occurred after the commercial advisor White Peter Navarro raised Conerns that Chinese products were being sent to the United States with labels “made in Vietnam” to take advantage of the lower import taxes.
The tensions between the United States and China could be a “golden opportunity” so that Europe increases its trade with Vietnam and to make it diversify its trade in a broader way, Jaspaert said.
“Vietnam has all the wars in the leg, so I think it will also win the war war,” Jaspaert said.
