Autoworkers at the Smyrna de Nissan vehicle assembly plant in Tennessee, June 6, 2022. The use of the plant more than 7,000 people and produces a variety of vehicles, including the EV of the leaf and the rebel crossover.
Michael Wayland / CNBC
Detroit-as, like 25% of the rates of Donald Trump’s president in imported vehicles, they remain in force despite a setback this week in other taxes based in the country, analysts expect mass global implications for the automotive industry due to policies.
They hope to see a fall in vehicle sales in millions, prices of higher and higher vehicles, and higher costs of more than $ 100 billion for the industry, according to Wall Street research reports and automotive analysts.
“What we are seeing now is a structural change, driven by politics, it is likely to be durable,” Felix Stellszek, Boston Consulting Consulting Group of Automotive and Mobility told CNBC. “This may be the most consistent year for the automotive industry in history, not only for immediate cost pressures, but because it is forcing a fundamental change in how and where the industry develops.”
BCG expects tariffs to add $ 110 billion to $ 160 billion in a basic annual execution rate in costs for the industry, which could affect 20% of market revenues of new US vehicles, which increases production costs for US and non -American manufacturers.
The Automotive Research Center, a group of non -profit experts based in Michigan, believes that costs for car manufacturers only in the United States will increase by $ 107.7 billion. That includes $ 41.9 billion for Detroit car manufacturers General Motors” Ford motor and Chrysler’s father Stellantis.
Both analyzes take into account 25% tariffs in imported vehicles implemented by Trump on April 3, as well as the next levies of the same amount in automotive pieces that will begin before May 3.
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Automobile and suppliers manufacturers can support some of cost increases, but US consumers are also expected to pass, which in turn could reduce sales, according to analysts.
“We believe that rates as proposed will increase the cost of importation and the manufacture of vehicles in the US. For at least one level of thousands of dollars of a single low -to -medium digit in acidage, and we believe that it will be difficult for the automotive industry to go with the gose,” “”, said analyst Mark Delaney in an investment note on Thursday.
Goldman Sachs assumes that the net prices of new vehicles in the United States will increase by approximately $ 2,000 to $ 4,000 in the next box of six to 12 roads to better reflect the costs of the rate.
Automobile manufacturers have responded to tariffs in several ways. Manufacturers that are mostly national, such as Ford and Stellantis, have announced temporary agreements for employee prices, while others, such as the British manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover, have ceased US shipments. Hyundai Motor has also said that it would not raise prices for at least two months to relieve consumer conerns.
The feeling of the consumer also worsened as expected in April as the expected inflation level reached the highest since 1981, he showed a survey by the University of Michigan closely.
Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of Insights of the Telemetry car advice firm, expects many car manufacturers to have at least one supply of approximately two months or non -objective vehicles that can be sold to tariffs.
Telemetry expects high production costs, pieces and other factors to result from 2 million less vehicles sold annually in the US and Canada, which will have dominant effects on the economy in general.
“A couple of millions of millions of units in sales will have a broad economic impact,” said Abuelsamid. “That is driven by higher prices, not only for vehicles, but in all areas … that will limit people’s expenditure power.”
The affordability of new and used vehicles has been a problem for several years. On average, COX Automotive reports that new vehicles cost almost $ 50,000. This figure does not include the cost of financing said vehicle, which has been significantly in recent years in an attempt to combat inflation.
The loan rates for cars remain close to the levels of more than 9.64% for a new vehicle and almost 15% for a used car or truck, according to COX.
“We hope to see the decline discount and then the increases in accelerated prices as tariffs are passed and the supply hardens, which leads to price increases in all types of new vehicles,” the main economic Monday of Cox Automotive. “In the long term, we hope that production and sales fall, freshly used prices will increase and some models are eliminated.”
The expected price increases vary according to the vehicle, but COX estimates an increase of $ 6000 at the cost of imported vehicles due to the rate of 25% of non -assembly vehicles, as well as an increase of $ 3,600 for the assembly of vehicles. Those add up to increases from $ 300 to $ 500 as a result of previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum.
