Canadian voters will go to the polls on Monday in the middle of one of the most dramatic campaign transformations in years.
January surveys indicated that conservatives were aimed at a certain victory, but the liberals have turned the race backwards, although the competition has been reduced in recent days. The early vote has destroyed records with more than 7.3 million votes cast.
“It is quite clear that the liberals will win this now,” said Frank Graves, president and founder of the Canadian voting firm Ekos Research. “That would have a completely unthinkable leg earlier this year.”
The past fall, the conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who was seen as a figure similar to Trump, took advantage of the growing populism in response to a crisis of affordability and inflation in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
But the tide changed when Trudeau resigned earlier this year on January 6, racing the way for the new liberal leadership, and President Donald Trump entered his second term, reading Canada’s economy with a commercial war. Suddenly, the Canadians unified around their national identity and against Trumpism.
Populism, the belief that power must be tasks of the corrupt elite and returned to people, led to the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom and the choice of Donald Trump in the United States. Graves was co -author of an article that found that 34 percent of Canadians have a popist perspective. This election, said Serious, the Canadians saw Trump re -entered the office and asked: “Do we want to follow this populist path?”
If the liberals win, it meant that Canadian voters face Trump, he said. “It will definitely be a reprimand for Trump, and for the son of populism they see on display in their administration.”
How the race changed
A change in the leadership of the United States has had a dramatic impact on its neighbor to the north.
At the beginning of the year, Pailievre enjoyed indisputable popularity. An election would be called at some point in 2025, and it seemed likely to face Trudeau, who had his leg in power for nine years and had become deeply unpopular.
Postpandemic and holding leaders in Western democracies faced Difficult Elections Trudeau was no different.
Pailievre was seen as a Trump figure in Canada; He had taken advantage of a “Popism of the North” that was a narrower part of the electorate than in the United States, but still a powerful force, said Serious. Pailievre made Trudeau his boxing sack, pointing to his unpopular policies, such as the Canadian carbon tax.
The question of Trudeau leadership reached a critical point when the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, suddenly resigned. In a letter, he wrote that Trudeau was not up to the challenge of economic nationalism and the high economic rates of Trump “America First”. Trudeau had no choice but to give up, which caused a leadership career for liberals.
In Canada’s political system, Trudeau resigning meant that the liberals still had power, but the party had to choose a new leader to run for this year’s elections.
While the hero of the party was a leadership race, Trump entered the position and quickly declared a 25 percent tariff on the imports of Canada and Mexico. At the same time, Trump made repeated comments that Canada should become state 51.
The liberal leadership career took place within a few weeks that Trump assumed the position, and the turn of events helped to move the party “Beyond the unpopularity of the Trudeau government,” said Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary.
With the sovereignty and economy of Canada under attack, on March 9 he chose Mark Carney, who was perceived to be intelligent in the economy after serving as a governor of Canada during the financial crisis of 2008 and the duration of the governor of England.
Carney, chosen in a landslide, channeled his popularity by calling a quick choice for April 28, the shortest electoral period allowed by law.
Canada faces Trump’s commercial war
Trump’s sudden tariffs have looted Canada’s economy in uncertainty. More than 70 percent of the country’s exports go to the United States, including automotive pieces, wood, agricultural products and steel.
“We are very dependent on the United States,” said Sylvanus Kwaku Aneorgbor, associate professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario. “There could be an important economic recession in Canada, because our economy depends largely on the US economy.”
In March, the second largest steel producer in Canada, Algoma Steel, announced dismissals as a direct result of Trump’s rates. The steel plant is the main employer in the very close city of Sult Ste Marie, Ontario, and the layoffs felt deeply throughout the community. The district of Sulte Ste Marie-Algoma has been held by the liberals since 2015, but last year, a steel worker dressed in Trudeau during a campaign stop. Since then, both Poilievre and Carney have made campaign stops in the city.
Ansorgbor said that voters affected by tariffs, such as steel workers, will probably analyze which party offers a better economic cushion in case of job loss. They may ask: “If there is an economic crisis due to Trump’s tariffs, who will be in a better position to solve that?” He said he understands how voters perceive the ability of each leader of the matches to negotiate with Trump.
Affesorgbor said that Canadian voters are “very supportive” about the economy, and will choose the party that they think can handle a recession and Trump’s commercial war. He said voters can perceive Mark Carney as the best candidate due to his history in the banking sector. “That has changed a lot of support for liberals.”
The liberals take the front
Trump’s policies to Canada had more than an economic impact. For many Canadians, he felt a threat to his national identity.
“[The tariffs were] Seen as an ally that leaves Canada, and then the comments of President Trump are added on how to make Canada the State 51. That caused a wave of Canadian nationalism unlike everything I have seen in my life, “Young told Al Jazeera.
The perspective was not so sunny for Pailievre. “That essentially has changed the political land, because a substantial proportion of the electorate suspects [Poilievre] Being too similar to Trump, “he said.
Serious saw a “deep transformation” in surveys. In February, the liberals and conservatives were essentially tied, but at the beginning of March, the liberals advanced to a maximum of five years as the Canadians asked: “How did we deal with this existential threat from Donald Trump?” Graves said.
The increase in national pride has pushed voters to Carney, who was seen as a candidate who could lead Canada through the agitation that Trump is based. “The liberals became the place to plant our flag and say:” We will continue to be a sovereign nation, “said Serious.
Canadian voters prepared to rebuke Trump
If the liberals win, as projected, it will indicate that Canada is drawing their own mathematics in relation to Trump, instead of choosing Pailievre, which is more conciliatory with Trump, said Young.
Graves said Americans should pay attention to Canada’s elections, which has raised similar questions about identity and what a way to take in the middle of swollen populism. Instead of asking the question of which party to choose from, Graves said that the Canadians are asking: “What kind of country do we want to be?”
“Under that question there are some of the problems, do we want to follow this populist path? I think the Canadians are stopping and looking and saying: ‘No, maybe that is not where we want to take our country,” said Graves.
Graves pointed out that it is rare for Western democracy to turn against growing populism. “Americans could find this as a possible recipe for their future, if they don’t want to continue on the path they are going,” he said.