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The main reason why countries go to war is the “reciprocal” tariff battle of President Donald Trump, now, more than ever, focuses on communist China, just like Beijing suffers a series of serious financial challenges.
Could it become an example of what Prussian General Carl Von Clausewitz said: “War is the continuation of politics (political) by other means”?
The secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, said that Beijing is a bad actor and that the increase in the tariff for China was “due to his [China’s] Insistence on climbing. “Of course, most China’s observers agree that we have an unbalanced commercial relationship with Beijing, a situation exacerbated by a decade of relations with worsening that made Beijing a hostile superpower.
The president of China, Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump (Getty images)
The increasing commercial barriers do not necessarily lead to open conflicts. However, history indicates that most shooting wars are the need for resources such as oil and minerals used in manufacturing. We saw how such interests led to Japan’s 1941 attack against America.
Trump’s tariff war with Beijing is part of a multiple strategy to ensure the United States of a much broader threat.
Japan’s decision to industrialize at the end of the 19th century led to Manchuria’s invasion in 1931 to ensure raw materials for industrial growth. Quickly, Japan established the puppet state of Manchukuo and by 1937, an important war with China broke out.
The Japan War with China hungry even more on the Tokyo War Machine, which led him to confiscate other lands in Asia. At that time, the United States imposed high tariffs, economic sanctions and embargoes in Japan, which threatened to paralyze the Japanese economy.
In early 1941, Tokyo and Washington had negotiated for months without success. However, to survive the impact of US economic actions, Japan decided to go to war against the United States, hoping to destroy our naval fleet anchored in Pearl Harbor in Hawaii and thus obtain access without restrictions on vital raw materials throughout the Pacific.
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It is true that modern China is not Japan prior to World War II, but provides an example of a country promoted by economic pressures. However, contemporary Beijing faces real economic challenges to its hegemonic ambitions that, if it does not contain it, it could threaten the control of communists on that country and their influence throughout the world.
President Xi Jinping’s options are to accept a bitter economy, which could lead to greater national instability or attract US business partners to China to replace lost markets. Alternatively, it could resort to military action as a distraction of domestic problems and a way of changing their economic fortune, such as taking Taiwan or other regional lands.
What is not in dispute is that China’s economy slowed down in 2024, which underlines the challenges for the second largest economy in the world. Contributing to that deceleration economy is the prolonged property crisis, the growing debt of local government and the persistent inemployent youth.
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Now, place the rates of 145% of Trump on top of these challenges, and China could less than $ 525 billion in annual revenues, which translates into millions of unhappy workers of the Chinese synete. This result will only increase business and consumer trust, Chinese yuan and accelerate riots.
How will President XI address the potential loss of the US market? That will be difficult because China’s exports are the cornerstone of their economic strategy. In addition, its domestic expense in the consumer is half of what it was before pandemic, and cannot absorb excess supply. Then, about this serious circumstance, geopolitical uncertainties are stealing from foreign investments.
Without a doubt, Trump’s tariffs arrive at a difficult time for China’s communists. President XI can make bold reforms that stabilize China’s economy, or that may have to create a distraction with their military.
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Alternatively, a sour Chinese economy will boost discontent and could threaten the regime. However, Xi is a survivor, as evidenced by the fact that he remained in Covid control when millions of Chinese lost their work.
Yes, there is a possibility that Trump’s commercial warfare with Beijing can lead to real hostilities or XI’s strategy could be to survive Trump.
Click here to read more than Robert Maginnis
