Ukraine is at the most difficult point of its existential war from the Russian in a large scale that Begen in February 2022.
The United States has retired from the alliance that supports kyiv, breaching a several -year strategic agreement signed with Ukraine last year.
Ukraine has been in a defensive position for a year, and Russian attacks against the Ukrainian soil are increasing.
Now, the United States is forcing Ukraine to negotiate peace from a position of weakness, while demanding a recovery of $ 135.7 billion in military and financial aid.
Worse could arrive, he warns Phillips O’Brien, head of the International Relations School of the University of St Andrews and leading analyst and commentator about Ukraine. The United States could eliminate their sanctions against Russia and leave NATO.
Al Jazeera spoke with him about why, despite the umbrellas thesis, he believes that Europe still has the ability to keep Ukraine fighting and, ultimately, he could seek more to determine the result of this war, for the sake of his own security.
Al Jazeera: Can Europe, in addition to some other nations such as Japan and Australia, save Ukraine from a bad agreement with US President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin?
Phillips O’Brien: They can certainly keep Ukraine in the fight. Much of this is announced what the United States does. We have to be careful with that. If the United States moves to completely support Russia and provides Russia with a significant amount of intelligence and support, that will really be a problem for Ukraine and Europe.
But assuming, say, the United States simply withdraws and washes its hands, Europe has the resources to maintain Ukraine. It would require mobilization, effort, a significant amount of commitment from Europe. Until now, I think they don’t show United’s will to do so, but they could certainly do it if they wanted to do it. They have the money. They have technological knowledge. They have the military team to make a significant difference.
Al Jazeera: So, do you think that, apart from intelligence, Europe and Ukraine can quickly develop the necessary industrial defense base?
O’Brien: Ukraine is already developing a lot, so what [Europeans] I could do is help overhabit what the Ukrainians are doing in, say, uav [unmanned aerial vehicle] Production. The Russian army is not this unstoppable machine. I think we have to realize that it is still a deeply flaved Wed institution.
It has been protected by the United States in many ways through this war in the way in which the United States has the help of Ukraine so as not to attack the Russian military machine in Russia, and that has been a conscious choice of the United States. Europe could a real change, if I wanted to, the way it helped Ukraine to free Ukraine, to provide more help to attack Russian production or Russian military facilities in Russia.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zenskyy, says that his goal is to make 30,000 long -range drones this year and 3,000 cruise missiles.
That would be very impression if they could put that money in operation, and I think it would put Russian logistics and military production at a significant pressure.
TO JAZEERA: What would be the possible consequences of crossing the United States and Russia if Ukraine and Europe really joined and did all these things, given what you said before over the United States that does not necessarily remit a neutral party?
O’Brien: If thesis rates [Trump announced on April 2] In force, it will be an economic war with Europe. One of the things I could do, I think, in many ways, it has already de facto, that is, ‘the United States will not have a role to defend Europe under article 5 of NATO’.
They could basically separate Europe from the transatlantic alliance. I think that the most dangerous thing for Europe in the immediate term is to end nuclear guarantees, basically tell Russia: “We are not protecting Europe”, that the nuclear guarantee of Europe is completed to a very small Numall and Brancán. and British and British and British and British and British and Brith, British and British and British, British and Bring and Brith.
Al Jazeera: But Putin has already made nuclear threats. Hey, when he dropped Orshnik’s ballistic missile in Dnipro last November …
O’Brien: I don’t think anyone in Europe tok [previous threats] Seriously, as a threat against Europe due to the nuclear shield of the United States.
Al Jazeera: Is there a European deficit in intelligence capabilities?
O’Brien: Basically, much of European intelligence has been integrated with the United States, and had a lot of information from the United States, and the United States has technological capabilities that they do not have.
Immediately, you would have to trust less good and less developed systems.
[Starlink] It’s just part of that. [There’s] The eyes of the United States in heaven, listening, the exchange of intelligence of the United States. They have the son of surveillance that Europe does not have this point. It will leave you much worse immediately, and Europe will have to build a new system in its place.
Al Jazeera: In this confrontation scenario, would a decline from the United States or US forces in Europe expect?
O’Brien: Congress could try to return at any time. The problem is the president’s commander, and at this time, the Republicans do not want to defend it.
Al Jazeera: Why is it important that Europe do that?
O’Brien: Because with the United States outside the game, Ukraine becomes incredible for the future of European security.
If you take out the United States, the state of Ukraine is absolutely, without a doubt, central to European security, because Ukraine is the difference, as Putin understands, between Russia as a threat to the continent or not.
If they can take Ukraine and rebuild in possession of Ukraine resources, one also assumes bellruse subsumums, then they are in a much better position. Who knows what happens to populists in France or with populists in other European countries. It is a very, very dangerous situation.
Europe is divided between Thethet because the action and those who still cannot believe what they are seeing. Is deeply frustrating because you [could see] A year ago that [a Trump presidency] I was going down the Lucio. There was a significant possibility that Europe had to plan for the United States to go home, the United States returned from NATO, and they simply did not want to do it. There was an intentional disability to plan a probable event, and that is a failure of leadership or historical proportions.
