The European Union flags (L) and China are located side by side on the chancell on June 20, 2023 in Berlin, Germany.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty images
It is unlikely that China and the European Union become quickly close allies, analysts say, even when the rates of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, are the acidic relations between the world’s largest economy and the transatlantic allies and Beijing of the world.
“I don’t see that the EU and China join the United States,” said Max Bergmann, director of the European Program, Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSI).
On a geopolitical level, the two powers could be open to a greater commitment, but the economic confrontations and existing problems related to trade and competition are an important obstacle, he explained.
“The EU and China’s economic alignment potential is limited since both are export -promoted economies and, therefore, are fierce competitors, especially in automotive and clean technological sectors,” Bergmann said.
“I think there will be interest on both sides, but deep practical limitations for both. Unless China is willing to make some concessions, it is hard for me to see the EU joining a deeper commitment strategy.”
EU-China tensions
The EU and China have a frantic relationship. While China is one of the largest business partners in the United States, economic relations between the two have also been characterized by research and Tit-For-Tat research linked to trade.
The EU has long alleged that Beijing subsidizes key sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries and steel and aluminum in a harmful way for global markets and competitiveness. Last year, the EU hit China with tariffs in electric vehicles, as a result.
In what was considered retaliation movements, Beijing launched anti -dumping probes to the EU exports of pork and brandy meat, as well as an antisubsidia investigation into the EU dairy products.
And it is not just trade that is causing tensions in the UE-China relationship, said Carsten Nickel, managing director of Teneo, to CNBC.
He added that they are “fundamental differences” between the two “, regardless of what is happening with the United States”
“That has to do with unresolved questions about overcapacity in China. It has to do with doubts in the European Parliament, especially with respect to the situation of human rights, and has to do with concerns about China’s support” “” “
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, also pointed out that there is “deep” European distrust of China in areas such as intellectual property and technological surveillance, as well as industrial policy.
This “does not go with the United States becoming an adversary,” he told CNBC.
Union attempts
However, China could try to use the opportunity to loosen Use’s ties to try to forge a closer link with the EU, analysts suggest.
“Special China will see an opportunity to break the transatlantic alliance and bring Europe,” said Csis, “Bergmann.
On the other hand, some Europeans may be imagining “coverage between the United States and China and perhaps make China reduce their support for the Russian defense industry and open economically,” he added.
China and the EU seem to have recently approached.
Just on Thursday, it was reported that the two plan to look for minimal prices for electric vehicles made by Chinese instead of EU rates. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, and asked for a more balanced relationship later. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi also visited Europe earlier this year, legalizing the closest ties and deeper cooperation.
Earlier this week, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Chinese prime minister, Li Qiang, spoke on the phone, although the EU chief “emphasized China’s critical role in addressing the possible commercial diversion caused by tariffs” and urged Beijing to work towards a negotiated solution to the problems of the tariffs, a reading of the European Commission.
The language used around the call on the European side seemed “softer” than in the past, said the nickel of Teneo.
Change ahead?
Ultimately, he thought, Nickel says: “The approach is to manage this very challenging situation for the global economy.”
Nickel said that does not mean that the underlying challenges in the European relationship with China have gone during the night.
The tariff action of the United States could even hinder things between China and the EU, Nickel suggested, since wars of existing problems, such as excess Chinese export capacity.
Emre Peker of Eurasia Group and Mujtaba Rahman echoed this idea in a note on Thursday.
“Commercial deviations as the American-China rate fight will increase will promote the European Commission to quickly deploy safeguarding measures to avoid China and other countries, from avoiding their assets in the EU market,” they said.
Separately, “Trump tariffs will force Brussels to harden their commercial position against Beijing beyond current efforts to counteract economic imbalances with China that threaten European industries,” said the analysts of the Eurasia group.
At the same time, European policy formulators will use “softer rhetoric” towards China to avoid triggering a commercial war on two fronts. “But it is very unlikely that this translates into the cooperation of Brussels-Beijing against Washington,” they concluded.