Beirut, Lebanon – The pressure on Hezbollah to disarm intensifies, headed by the United States and backed by some Lebanese factions.
An Israeli war against Lebanon who killed much of the group’s main leadership last year, as well as hundreds of civilians, including at least 200 children-left, the group wobbles and was aggravated by the fall of an ally, the Assad regime.
Hezbollah opponents are now taking advantage of these circumstances.
“It is clear that Hezbollah has to be disarmed, and it is clear that Israel will not accept the terrorists who shoot their country,” said the special vice -minicio of the United States. UU. In the Middle East Oriente Morgany to a Lebanese issuer to a Lebanese emitter of a Lebanese exhibition of a wide Lebanese Calcaster.
In another interview, when asked if he pushed Hezbollah too strong, he could lead to an internal struggle, Ortago said that Hezbollah should be treated as “a cancer” and eliminated.
He also said that economic and banking reforms are crucial to stop the effective economy that allows Hezbolá to operate out of the bank network and out of US regulation.
The group is in the most precarious position in which the Lebanese civil war has bone since its formation.
On the one hand, it is unlikely to want to disarm with great incentives, while, on the other, American and domestic pressure accumulates and attacks continuous in Lebanon by Israel, which uses “hezbollah elements” as a justifying and IT canvification to cooperate reconstruction.
Hezbolá is still there
However, much of the debate on Hezbollah’s arms does not take into account the group itself or its position.
Hezbollah has not announced that he disarms. But the group is aware that the reconstruction of many of their followers’ homes is based on the government agreed to foreign aid.
Hezbolá would accept “giving up his de facto weapons in principle,” said Karim Safieddine, a Lebanese political writer and a doctoral student at Sociology at the University of Pittsburgh, Al Jazeera. Instead, they could disarm “in exchange for great benefits.”
The Reuters news agency reported that a senior Hezbollah official had said that the group is considered if Israel withdraws from the five points in the south of Lebanon who continues to occupy, although the group’s media office later denied the report.
“Hezbolá accepts a national dialogue to develop a defense strategy, but won the disassembly of discussion,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst who is believed to be close to the group. “Currently, it is impossible to discuss disarmament while the Israeli occupation continues. However, if Israel retires, I don’t know what will happen.”
Hezbollah is not the force that was 18 months ago. A large part of its arsenal has been destroyed and its military leadership killed the war with Israel, and its main path to receive weapons closed when Al-Assad fled to Moscow in December.
Although the group still maintains popular support in much of the South, the Lebanese army now largely controls the south of Lebanon.
Despite their regional fabric position, many analysts believe that Hezbollah is still capable or challenged national actors, including the military.
“Hezbollah weakens but is still strong in Lebanese terms,” said a western diplomat who speaks under anonymity. “They can no longer scare or threaten Israel, but they still have enough arms to represent an internally threat.”
There is a fear in some sectors that, if Hezbollah is pushed to a corner, he could be outside and attract the country to civil conflicts.
“Yes, the pressure is very large,” Kassir said.
“But I discard a civil war.”
Pressure on the new government
Before the Israel war against Lebanon, Hezbollah was the most influential military and political actor in the country.
He drew most of his support from the Shiite Muslim community of Lebanon, whose political representation controlled with his allied movement of Amal, according to reports, sometimes using violence against political opponents.
Although he still has a lot of popular support in some parts of the country, Hezbollah’s political and military hegemony seems to have finished.
“This always happens every time there is a total, and Hezbollah went through a legal divis,” said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.
Nationally, a consensus seems to be forming among the Powerbrokers that the State must be the only arbitrator of weapons, such as President Joseph Aoun has repeatedly expressed, in a clear message to Hezbollah.
“The decision was made and its implementation will take place through dialogue without any appeal,” Aoun a Al Jazeera told an interview.
The president seems to have support from French president Emmanuel Macron.
But this measured approach is not universally appreciated, and the pressure is being based on Aoun and the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of some sectors, particularly the administration of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to adopt a more aggressive approach.
“These forces essentially think [a measured approach] It allows Hezbollah to regroup and not be difficult enough, “Natasha Hall, a member of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazera.
That opinion is also shared by some groups in Lebanon, including Lebanese forces (LF), a right -wing Christian party that has four ministers in the government led by Salam. The two main leaders of the LF, Samir Geagea and Georges Adwan, both tasks have a bullish position.
Gaegea criticized the concept of a national dialogue about Hezbollah’s arms and said that a difficult six -month deadline should be applied.
Adwan, the second in command of the LF, attacked one of Salam’s ministerial allies for saying that Hezbolá could not be disarmed by force and disarmament should be encouraged through reconstruction. Adwan also mentioned the possibility of eliminating the LF ministers from the Salam government.
That internal pressure by the LF, however, may not have the power or influence to push Hezbollah or the government to act.
“Lebanese forces cannot do much, but they adhere politically,” said Safieddine.
Washington has the power
As the internal struggle develops, experts and analysts said that the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons is deciding on other stages: in the conversations of the Washington and Trump administration with Iran, a disdainful supporter of Hezbollah.
Iran and the United States made conversations mediated by Oman in Muscat on Saturday and are prepared for another round in Rome this weekend.
While the conversations are supposed to focus on Iran’s nuclear program, experts believe that groups backed by Iran in their “resistance axis” will probably also be on the agenda.
“Iran understands that if you want to continue with a nuclear program and if you continue to invoke the so -called resistance axis in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, the cost will be too high,” Khashan said.
“Hezbollah understands that they have to disarm, and it will happen not because of the local pressure in Lebanon but by the political will in the military capacities of the United States and Israel,” he continued.
The possibility of disarming Hezbollah seems closer than at any other point in the more than 40 years of group’s history. But some analysts warned that Washington’s approach should consider the delicacy of the current leadership of Lebanon and its attempts to connect with the traditional Hezbollah support base.
“You must find a way to create a new sense of social belonging in the Shiite community and the person that people feel that the State can represent their interests,” said Safieddine, added that the social belonging of sectarians could replace loyalty to Hezbollah.
“The United States can’t do that,” he said.
For Washington, however, these seem to be unimportant details in larger attempts to remodel the region. The Trump administration, and the Biden administration have constantly ignored local actors in these attempts.
“Washington feels that thesis thesis conflicts can unravel and pay little attention to governance in these countries and then to lead a sustainable peace son,” Hall said.
“During the last year and a half, [we’ve seen] We simply avoid the Palestinian theme, the issue of Lebanese governance and corruption, Yemen, Syria, etc. But it seems that there is still an effort to do so. “