Currently, Nickel is cited at $ 14,030 per ton for the three -month contract in London Metal Exchange (LME). Nickel Spot is governing at $ 13,800 | Photo credit: Reuters
Nickel prices have fallen to almost five years and the prospects for metal are bassists by 2025 due to excess supply and groups about the commercial war, analysts said.
“In terms of price, the nickel was the weakest performance metal in 2024, with the average annual price of LME falling by 22 percent year -on -year (interannual) to $ 16,812 per ton … Nickel prices will remain low in the purchase (Aoocyriest).
“We anticipate that the Willain market in surplus in 2025, driven by the resistant growth of Indonesia production,” said the BMI research agency, a Fitch Solutions unit.
“We believe that this low performance (or nickel) is likely to continue, at least in the demand for short -term fabric and a sustained market surplus,” said ING, the financial and economic analysis wing of the Dutch multinational services firm.
Less 3% since January 1
Currently, Nickel is cited at $ 14,030 per ton for the three -month contract in London Metal Exchange (LME). Spot Nickel is ruling at $ 13,800. Prices are at its lowest point since September 2020. More than 3 percent have decreased since January 1.
He Commercial economy The website said that the increase in nickel stocks in the LME adds to the pressure, with the Indonesian nickel processed by Chino now that represents more than 50 percent of the LME inventories, compared to only 11 percent in early 2024.
“The growing production of refined metal of Indonesia is feeling even more the market, squeezing margins even for national producers,” he said.
BMI said it has reduced its nickel pricing forecast by 2025 from an annual average of $ 17,000/ton at $ 15,000. “We hope that the average annual nickel price decreases for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an anticipated decrease or 12.0 percent, after decreases or 15.3 percent in 2023 and 21.4 percent in 2024,” he said.
Continuous supply growth
The AOCE said that until now in 2025, the price of reference nickel has remained around $ 16,000 per ton. Persistent growth is expected in the global refined nickel offer to contain prices of around $ 17,000 per ton (in real terms) over the next few years.
“With solid growth in the projected capacity for both the mine and the global supply refined this year, the average price is expected to average around $ 16000 per ton in 2025,” he said.
However, it is expected that the facilitation of the growth of the offer towards the end of the perspectives of the main producers (such as Indonesia) will help reduce the current global surplus, and see that prices recover to an average of $ 18000 by 2030, the Australian saint.
BMI said the escalation of the risks associated with Trump’s commercial policies is about to exacerbate the downward pressures on nickel prices. “The recently imposed rate includes most nickel products, which presents significantly demanded risks. We anticipate volatility ahead as the market actors respond to the continuous flow of developments related to trade,” he said.
Supply cutting
“… The Profitability of Downstream Processing and Refining Remains to Key Risk to the Continued Expansion in Global Supply in 2025 and Furthe pole And you have ben thave and have ben to have and has and has been to have and has to have and have to have and have had to have to have and have to have and have been to have and it has been to have and it has been to have and has a adjusted supply of mineral mined, “said the AOCE.
Additional supply cuts would be expected to accelerate the reduction in excess global supply projected for later in the period of perspective.
However, the BMI said that a burst or possible challenges on the offer side in Indonesia has further promoted optimism. “Although we maintain our Beararish perspective for 2025 nickel prices, the strictest conditions of the market are expected And the strong demand, “he says.
However, Indonesian production will continue, which drives the lowest prices. “We hope that the global refined nickel production will increase by 2025 (4.9 percent to 4.2 million tons (MT)), although at a more moderate rate in relation to 2024 levels (5.5 percent to 4 TM),” said the research agency.
3 upward risks
Indonesian production will be the main driver of production growth amid the reduction of new projects, and production will increase by 9 percent year -on -year to 1.8 TM in 2025.
The BMI marked the uncertainty about the plans of nickel mining quotas of Indonesia, an increase in the nickel mineral royalty rates of Indonesia of the current 10 percent and the Philippines movement to ban Nickel Orre’s exports as three risks upward.
The AOCE said that it is projected that Nickel’s world demand will see constant growth during the period of perspectives at 208, with EV batteries that represent an increasing participation of the global demand for final use.
Posted on April 11, 2025
