US trade rates. – works of art made by me | Photo credit: Getty images
Global trade could be reduced by three percent and exports could see a change of markets such as the United States and China to India, Canada and Brazil due to tariffs imposed by the United States, said a main UN economist. The president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced a massive tariff plan last week. Later, the White House announced a 90 -day break about the “reciprocal tariffs” for most countries expect China, which in turn decided to impose 125 percent tariffs on US imports.
“Global trade could be reduced by 3 percent, with important long-term changes in commercial patterns and economic integration,” said the executive director of the International Center of Trade Pamela Coke-Hamilton in Geneva.
“For example, Mexico’s exports, which have been very affected, or changing in such a way that the United States, China, Europe and even other Latin American countries, with fashion gains in Canada and Brazil, and a minor, India”, “” “” “” “
Similarly, Vietnamese exports are redirecting far from the United States, Mexico and China, while increasing substantially towards the markets of the Middle East and Africa of the North (Mena), the EU, Korea and others, he said.
Citing the example of clothing, Coke-Hamilton said that textiles is an important industry in terms of economic activity and employment for developing countries.
In this context, he said that Bangladesh, the second largest clothing exporter in the world, would face a 37 percent reciprocal rate, if it will enter into force, which could lead to a loss of $ 3.3 billion in annual exports to the US Or the sudden changes in the subject, the changes in the subject of the Pandemic or suddenly in the police in the politicians of politics. Areas: diversification, additional value and regional integration. “Therefore, there are opportunities to develop the country not only to navigate in the times of uncertainty, but to prepare proactively for the long journey,” he said.
Coke-Hamilton said that initial estimates, developed with the French Economics Research Institute CEPII, calculated before the announcement of the 90-day pause and additional tariff increases in China, indicate that world GDP could reduce global GDP by 0.7 percent.
Countries such as Mexico, China and Thailand, but also countries in southern Africa, one of the most affected, together with the United States. According to China’s decision to impose the trade war of 125 percent, it is out of place.
“China is in the long term. Beijing has also admitted that it has reached the final point in retaliation with tariffs, perhaps pointing out that it has many other tools in its arsenal that could be activated more meaning.”
He added that pronounced tariffs now exist: 145 percent for Chinese imports to the United States and 125 percent for US imports to China, Virtualy stops all goods of goods between the two largest economies in the world.
“The time that these rates remain in place is an open question, but at some point, both Washington and Beijing will recognize the need to commit and manage this deteriorating situation,” he said.
The Vice President of International Security and Diplomacy of Aspi, Daniel Russel, said that Chinese President Xi Jinping is not going back, but things are flying either.
He is “betting that Trump’s tantrum will collapse under the weight of the US market response,” Russel said.
He added that Beijing is moving away from symmetrical reprisal tariffs, signing that he has ended up playing Trump’s climbing game and, on the other hand, is playing for the long -term strategic advance.
“By stating that ‘will ignore’ future increases in US rates Alienar to his partners, “Russel said.
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Posted on April 12, 2025
